Wealthion Macro Bites 3-26

On Wednesday, President Trump said Iranian leaders “are negotiating and they want to make a deal so badly, but they are afraid to say it because they will be killed.” In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi seemed to acknowledge review of proposals in stating, “Messages being conveyed through our friendly countries and us responding by stating our positions or issuing the necessary warnings is not called negotiation or dialogue.” Stay tuned…

In graphic demonstration of impacts of (effective) closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Gulf oil production, output from Iraq’s main southern oilfields has fallen over 81% (from 4.3Mbpd to 800kbpd) as the country’s storage tanks reach high and critical levels.

When it rains it pours: Reuters reports that recent Ukrainian drone attacks have halted at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, the most severe supply disruption in Russian history. Early assessments include damage to a major pipeline, shutdown of one of Russia’s largest oil refineries and shutdown of Russia’s Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga.

Under a preliminary agreement, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths said it would supply rare earth oxides to a processing plant that South Korea’s LS Eco Energy will build in Vietnam, with LS using the metals to manufacture permanent rare earth magnets in the U.S. LS said it plans to commence operations at the Vietnam factory in Q4 ’26. Lynas said the new facility would supply metallized NdPr and selected heavy rare earth products, with initial focus on samarium.

One day after Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto approved windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced Indonesia is contemplating “measured relaxation” of its recently adopted production quotas for these resources, contingent on sustained high market prices.

Oil inflation watch: To offset soaring transportation costs, the U.S. Postal Service is proposing a temporary 8% surcharge on package shipping services (incl. Priority Mail and Ground Advantage) effective 4/26/26 through 1/17/27. Platts reports global jet fuel prices averaged $4.69/g in the week ended 3/20 (+12.6% w/w and +105.8% m/m). In response, business airfares on various long-haul routes (esp. Europe-to-Asia) have soared by 50% to 100% in early ’26.

Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%, S&P futures -0.8% and Nasdaq futures 1.0%. European bonds are trading sharply lower, with yields 9bps-12bps across the board. 10-year Treasury yield +4.8bps (4.380%). DXY dollar index +0.25, spot gold -1.7% and spot silver -5.4%. Brent futures +4.7% ($107.03) and WTI futures 4.3% ($94.20). [8 am ET]

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