Macro Bites – Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterm Elections

Addressing recent speculative press reports, President Trump said on Thursday the U.S. will not launch Iranian strikes ​before 11/3 midterm elections.  Trump once again asserted the U.S. and Iran are ‌having "productive" peace talk, "We will not be attacking Iran ​at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in ​the United States on November 3rd."

Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated at a regional summit in Turkmenistan on Friday that peace negotiations will only succeed if they are conducted without "pressure and threats."  Pezeshkian emphasized that negotiation under the shadow of force is "imposition and coercion" rather than genuine dialogue.

China’s PBOC issued a lengthy formal document on Thursday defending its management of the yuan and rejecting claims that the yuan is undervalued as trade talks proceed with the EU where officials have increasingly blamed trade imbalances on the euro/yuan exchange rate.  The PBOC release argues exchange-rate adjustments won’t resolve structural imbalances in the global economy and states China’s export strength stems from rising industrial competitiveness rather than currency policy, “China has no need or intent to gain competitive advantages through currency devaluation.”

India’s Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava announced on Thursday that the government would not be extending exemption from paying Integrated Goods and Services Tax for gold, silver and platinum imported through banks beyond 3/31/26.  The move will subject all bank-conducted precious metal imports to a 3% levy, thereby raising import costs for the main channels supplying the world’s largest bullion market.  Shrivastava stated the decision was taken so that, “we do not have tax becoming a reason for one route being preferential to another.”

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto officially launched 11 massive downstream industrial projects worth a combined $10.2B at the Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park in Central Halmahera, North Maluku. This event is the latest development in Indonesia's mineral strategy to move past raw mining and build an advanced, domestic ecosystem for EV’s and clean energy.  Alongside the launch, Subianto celebrated the nation's first-ever export of domestically manufactured EV batteries. The initiative splits into four operational projects (valued at $3.4B) and seven newly broken-ground construction projects (valued at $6.8B).

Valcambi CEO Simone Knobloch announced on Thursday that Swiss-based Valcambi (one of the world’s largest gold refiners) signed an LOI with Hong Kong’s sole steelmaker to establish a new precious metal refining company in Hong Kong which will also provide vaulting services.  The agreement bolsters Hong Kong’s push to become a global bullion hub.  Knobloch noted, “Asia is a key market for the precious metals industry and will continue to play an increasingly important role in its future.”