Wealthion Macro Bites 1-23-26

November personal income rose 0.1% (vs. +0.4% est.) and personal spending increased 0.3% (vs. +0.1% est.), driving the savings ratio down to 3.5% (lowest since Oct. ’22).  Combined with the budget deficit, the net national savings rate is now negative 2.76%, when subtracted from 4.4% Q3 GDP projects intrinsic domestic growth of just 1.6%, with the remainder borrowed from abroad.  At year-end ‘24, the U.S. net international investment position was negative $26.5T, but with President Trump now attracting significant external investments in U.S., how long can these deficits be maintained?

After several years of Davos green energy discussions, U.S. Energy Secretary told the World Economic Forum the world needs to more than double its oil production, emphasizing global oil dependence for decades to come.  Separately, a sweeping reform of Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law recently submitted by Interim President Delcy Rodriguez received initial approval yesterday from Venezuela’s National Assembly.  The new measures would allow foreign and local companies to operate oilfields on their own through a new contract model, commercialize output and receive sale proceeds even when acting as minority partners of the state company PDVSA.

In the World Platinum Investment Council’s initial 2026 forecast, Research Director Edward Sterck projects a largely balanced platinum market (modest 20koz surplus).  Key assumptions in the WPIC forecast are a 150koz drawdown of elevated CME stocks due to easing trade tensions and 170koz of profit-taking from platinum ETF’s.  Platinum’s 127% increase in 2025 was driven by a 6% increase in investment demand (to 742koz), with total bar and coin demand increasing 47% to a four-year high of 522koz (driven by China’s 418koz) and ETF inflows of 70koz.

Following reports President Trump delayed surgical Iranian strikes on advice a more sustained campaign would be required to topple the Khamenei regime, Trump telegraphed the U.S. has an “armada” heading towards Iran, including an aircraft carrier and guided missile destroyers due to arrive in the Middle East within days.

Quote of the Week:  German Chancellor Friedrich Merz raised eyebrows at the Davos World Economic Forum in bluntly stating, “Germany and Europe have wasted incredible potential for growth in recent years by dragging feet on reforms and unnecessarily and excessively curtailing entrepreneurial freedom and personal responsibility…The single market was once created to form the most competitive economic area in the world.  Instead, we have become the world champion of over regulation. That has to end.”

Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, S&P futures -0.15% and Nasdaq futures -0.25%.  DXY dollar index and spot gold little changed and spot silver +3% at $99 (gold/silver ratio at 49.8!!).