Wealthion Macro Bites 10/2/25

Ahead of probable delay in Friday’s employment report (due to government shutdown), Wednesday’s ADP employment report estimated September private-sector payrolls unexpectedly fell 32,000 (vs. +51k est.), while August payrolls were revised from +54,000 to -3,000.  Outside of Covid, the six-month average of the ADP employment change is now the worst since the 6 months ended July 2010.

Canada’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 from 48.3, marking the 8^th straight month it has been in contractionary territory below 50.  “Output, new orders and exports all continued to fall, with the uncertain trading environment also leading firms to make cuts to make cuts to purchasing, inventories and employment.”

Net U.S. tariff revenues totaled a record $30B in September.  Over the past 6 months the U.S. has collected $152B in tariffs, with each month’s inflow slightly larger than the prior month. Should the $30B monthly run rate be sustained ($360B annualized), tariff revenue would take a big bite out of the budget deficit.