Wealthion Macro Bites 10/29/25

In preparation for tomorrow’s meeting with President Xi in Busan, South Korea), President Trump telegraphed reducing the 20% fentanyl tariff rate on Chinese goods to 10% (in exchange for China’s commitment to curb exports of precursor chemicals) and providing China increased access to Nvidia’s Blackwell AI chip.  China announced purchase of at least two cargoes of U.S. soybeans (first purchase this season) and President Trump predicted his Xi meeting would result in “a very good outcome for our country and for the world.”

Following a lavish Trump ceremonial welcome from South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, South Korea’s top policy chief Kim Yong-beom announced progress in bilateral trade talks. Still emerging details include 15% tariffs on auto parts, semiconductor tariffs to be set in line with Taiwan competition, and initial breakdown of the $350B investment pledge Trump is demanding of South Korea ($150B in shipbuilding projects and $200B in cash investments with annual cap of $20B).

In addition to agreements on rare earths and nuclear reactor development, further details emerged from U.S./Japan trade talks including up to $400B of U.S. investment projects in energy, AI and critical minerals currently being assessed by Japanese companies.

As the world’s largest oil companies report earnings this week, analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the majors to increase production by 3.9% in ’25 and 4.7% in ’26, despite weak crude prices and increased OPEC output.  WTI and Brent are headed lower. 

Busy afternoon: Fed rate decision at 2pm and MSFT, GOOGL and META report after the close. 

Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, S&P futures +0.3% and Nasdaq futures +0.5%.   DXY dollar index +0.25%, spot gold +1.7% and spot silver +2.3% (gold/silver ratio at 83.4).

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