Wealthion Macro Bites 10/3/25

Over the past 50 years, the prior 20 federal government shutdowns lasted an average eight days and a median of four days.  However, Democrats and Republicans are digging-in on opposing positions in this episode with Democrats insisting on extension of Obamacare premium subsidies and reversal of BBB Medicaid cuts and the White House threatening to leverage the U.S. shutdown to fire thousands of federal workers.

Indonesian State-owned mining company PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) has launched a plan to spearhead Indonesia’s nickel downstream industry and establish a complete electric vehicle battery ecosystem.  Antam signed six cooperation agreements with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), the world’s largest battery manufacturer.  The production chain will cover nickel mining, nickel powder processing, conversion into nickel sulfate or nickel cathodes, high-Pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), and battery cell manufacturing.

Reuters reports the Trump administration is preparing the biggest overhaul of commercial bank capital rules since the GFC.  In addition to narrowing Basel III capital hikes, administration plans will reduce the capital surcharge levied on risky global banks, shrink a key leverage constraint, and overhaul annual stress testing.  Lower capital ratios are necessary for banks to supply the liquidity to finance the U.S. budget deficit and incremental growth with the Fed’s reverse repo now exhausted (since peaking in late-2022 the $2.5T reverse repo drawdown has accounted for more than 100% of monetary growth).

In its Precious Metals Weekly, Metals Focus highlights efforts in industries such as solar panel manufacturing to intensify silver thrifting and accelerate substitution trends in key industrial applications in the wake of silver’s recent price rally.

DXY dollar index -0.05%, spot gold +0.1% and spot silver +1.0% (gold/silver ratio at 81.3).