Wealthion Macro Bites 10/9/25

Ahead of a high-stakes meeting this month between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea, China has unveiled new curbs on its rare earth exports which will require overseas exporters (of products with even traces of Chinese produced rare earths) to acquire an export license.  China’s Ministry of Commerce cited national security grounds in stating certain equipment and engineering technology will also be subject to export controls and exports of listed rare-earth materials for defense applications will be broadly denied. 

The 1-month (11.1%), 3-month (8.2%) and 12-month (4.1%) silver lease rates have exploded in recent weeks, suggesting silver’s large paper short position (relative to the physical silver stock available for delivery) may finally be setting the market up for a big squeeze.  Market observers suggest shorts will defend their positions heavily at $50/oz, but if they fail to hold that level, the combination of price losses and lease costs could send the silver price sharply higher.

Following days of negotiations in Sharm El-Sheikh (Egypt) brokered by the U.S., Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, Israel and Hamas reached a deal for a ceasefire, truce and release of all hostages held in Gaza. 

Weekly data discloses foreign central banks held $2.78T of Treasuries at the New York Fed, down $130B in two months and the lowest total since August 2012.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecast the recent series of mine disruptions in Indonesia, Chile and Congo will reduce 2025 global mine production growth from its April 2.3% estimate to 1.4%.  ICSG estimates 2026 mine production growth will reaccelerate to 2.3% due to increases in Chilean, Peruvian and Zambian output.  World refined copper production is forecast to rise 3.4% in ’25 and 0.9% in ’26 and world refined copper usage is forecast increase 3% in ’25 and 2.1% in ’26.  All-in-all ICSG is estimating a refined copper market surplus of 178,000 tonnes in ’25 and a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in ’26.