Wealthion Macro Bites 12-19-25

After skipping the October CPI report due to government shutdown, the BLS reported November inflation figures significantly softer than expectations, with CPI +2.7% y/y (vs. +3.1% est.) and core CPI +2.6% (vs. +3.0% est.).  The core CPI figure was the lowest since the inflation outbreak began in Mar. ’21.  Month-on-month figures were not produced, but on a two-month basis core CPI was up 0.2% from Sept. to Nov. (implying +0.1% monthly core readings for Oct. and Nov.).

While equity and precious-metal markets initially rose on the softer than expected CPI data, the November release quickly earned the reputation of a “swiss cheese” report, because so much Oct. and Nov. data was estimated.  BLS noted that for many price indexes, it used “non-survey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations.”  Further, the overall price environment was weakened by the government shutdown itself and the fact the Nov. survey was conducted in late-Nov. amid Black Friday type discounting.  Finally, an outlier Sept. plunge of owner equivalent rent (OER is 26% of CPI and 33% of core CPI) was simply carried over to Oct. and Nov., creating a 3-mos. span of +1.6% vs. +4.1% in prior six months.

ETF flows confirm ongoing retail rotation from gold to silver (+13.2% past 2 weeks) and platinum (+13.4% past week).  On Thursday, gold ETF holdings fell by 39.8koz. while silver ETF holdings increased 1.86Moz and platinum holdings increased 3.8koz. (Bloomberg).

Congress increased the financing capacity of The U.S. International Development Finance Corp. (an agency created in Trump’s first term) from $60B to $205B, extended its mandate to 2031 and broadened its mandate to allow investments in wealthy countries if needed for national security purposes.  The DFC plans to invest globally in AI data centers and critical mineral, infrastructure and energy projects. 

DXY dollar index +0.25%, spot gold -0.15% and spot silver +0.55%.