Wealthion Macro Bites 3-18

After “elimination” of Iranian Security Chief Ali Larijani and Basij Commander Gholamreza Soleimani on Monday, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib was killed in a Tuesday night strike. Iran launched a fresh wave of attacks targeting the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Nevertheless, President Trump stated the U.S. would soon be ready to end the war, “We’re not ready to leave [Iran] yet, but we’ll be leaving in the near future.”

Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) will route its aluminum exports and raw material imports through Oman’s port of Sohar within the next few days. Aluminum prices hit a four-year high ($3,546.50/t) last week, up 12% since the Iran conflict began. The Gulf hosts 7Mt of aluminum production (9% of global supply) with 80% exported to the U.S. and E.U.

Darton Commodities predicts a global cobalt shortage (82kt deficit in ’25) will persist through the end of the decade as export restrictions from the DRC (70% of global production) continue to impact the supply chain. Since Congo first banned exports in Feb. ’25 (and subsequently introduced export quotas in Oct. ’25) LME cobalt prices have risen 165%.

The U.S. Consulate in Sao Paulo announced the U.S. will sign (on Wednesday) an MOU with the Brazilian state of Goias to strengthen cooperation in critical minerals and rare earths. The agreement promotes research and partnerships between government bodies and the private sector to support development and processing of Goias’ mineral deposits.

During 2025, the Wyoming state legislature passed the Wyoming Gold Act mandating purchase of 2,312 gold ounces to be held in the State’s investment portfolio. The $11.6M gold bar hoard (purchased in Dec. for $10M) has been delivered to a Casper vault operated by private local company Wyoming Reserve. State Senator Bob Ide noted, “I can’t put a timeline on it, but there’s gonna’ be a sovereign debt crisis.” In 2024, Utah authorized purchase of $140M of precious metals now stored in a Salt Lake City Brinks vault. A current West Virgina bill would authorize the state to invest 10% of public funds in gold and silver and last week a Tennessee senate committee backed a bill to appropriate $50M to a dedicated precious-metal fund.

Apollo Global asset management co-president John Zito called out “arrogance” in private-credit markets and predicted loans to generic small or midsize “Joe Software Companies” might recover just 20 to 40 cents on the dollar.

FOMC rate decision at 2pm (and press conference at 2:30pm). Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%, S&P futures +0.2% and Nasdaq futures +0.4%. DXY dollar index little changed, spot gold -1.4% and spot silver -0.8%. Brent futures +1.2% ($104.70) and WTI futures -0.8% ($95.40) [7:50 am ET].

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