Wealthion Macro Bites 3-23

Sometimes it is best to let words speak for themselves. On Saturday (7:44 pm ET), President Trump warned on Truth Social, “If Iran doesn’t fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first.”

Then on Monday morning (7:23 am ET), Trump posted, “I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” Commenting on the “tenor and tone” of the conversations, Trump promised to delay threatened power plant attacks for at least five days. Despite Iranian media denials of any substantive talks, global stocks & bonds, gold and silver immediately rallied on Trump’s post.

On Sunday, Iranian Parliament National Security Council member Alaeddin Boroujerdi announced that due to “war costs,” Iran would now charge all vessels passing through the Strait $2M, reflecting a “new sovereign regime” in the Strait after decades. Separately, Iran’s Defense Council threatened to fully mine the Strait if Iran’s coasts or islands are attacked.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol termed the unfolding energy crisis as “very severe” and said the global economy is “facing a major, major threat.” Birol categorized the current situation as worse than the ’73 and ’79 oil crises and gas market disruption following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “And not only oil and gas, some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemical, such as fertilizers, such as sulfur, such as helium, their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy.”

In response to already dwindling oil and input supplies, Philippines and Sri Lanka instituted 4-day workweeks to curb diesel use and stretch existing supplies. Pakistan closed schools and shifted universities online.

Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%, S&P futures +1.5% and Nasdaq futures +1.5%. DXY dollar index -0.2%, spot gold -3% and spot silver -1.0% [8 am ET].

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