Wealthion Macro Bites 3-25

Associated Press reports Pakistan intermediaries delivered to Iran a 15-point ceasefire proposal from the U.S. The proposal includes sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, missile limits and Strait of Hormuz shipping access. Iran Central Military Headquarters spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari promptly dismissed the proposal as the U.S. “negotiating with itself,” and threatened, “Someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you. Not now, not ever.”

Separately, President Trump told reporters the U.S. was talking to “the right people” in Iran to reach a deal to end hostilities, “We’re in negotiations right now.” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed these reports as “fake news.”

At least 1,000 troops from the 82^nd Airborne Division will be sent to the Middle East in coming days to join 5,000 deploying Marines and thousands of sailors already in the region. In response, Speaker Ghalibaf posted, “We are closely monitoring all U.S. movements in the region, especially troop deployments. What the generals have broke, the soldiers can’t fix…Don’t test our resolve to defend our land.”

Responding to budgetary strains from soaring oil prices, Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto on Wednesday approved taxes on outbound shipments of coal and nickel (>50% of global production). While discussions are ongoing on the windfall tax rate, LME nickel futures rose 2.1% (to $17,310/t) at 8 am London time.

On Tuesday, QatarEnergy officially declared force majeure on long-term LNG supply contracts with customer counterparties in Italy, Belgium, Sout Korea and China.

Responding to sharp deterioration in in treatment and refining charges (TC/RC’s) for copper concentrate, Mitsubishi Materials said on Wednesday it will stop processing copper concentrate ​and operating related smelting facilities at its Onahama plant ‌by March ‘27.

Following President Trump’s potential ceasefire references, stocks, bonds, gold and silver have all rallied and oil has pulled back modestly. Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, S&P futures +1.0% and Nasdaq futures +1.2%. European bonds trading higher by 8bps-10bps across the board. 10-year Treasury yield -4.3bps (4.316%). DXY dollar index -0.18%, spot gold +2.3% and spot silver +2.8%. Brent futures -5.2% ($99.10) and WTI futures -5.0% ($87.60). [8 am ET]

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