Wealthion Macro Bites 4-28

President Trump convened his national security team to discuss Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal, which is essentially an interim deal for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran’s proposal postpones negotiations over its nuclear program and insists on maintaining control of Hormuz shipping lanes, two demands Washington is unlikely to accept.

The DRC’s General Inspectorate of Mines announced the creation of “the mining guard,” a paramilitary unit to secure the country’s largest mining sites and guard mineral transports. Backed by $100M of investments from the US and UAE, gradual deployment of the paramilitary unit is planned to reach a 2028 total of 20,000 armed guards covering the DRC’s 22 mining provinces. DRC President Felix Tshisekedi said the armed force will protect DRC mining sites from rebel groups in the country’s troubled east and “clean up the entire mining sector, by eliminating practices that run counter to good governance, transparency and traceability of minerals.”

The Ecuadorian subsidiary of China’s CMOC Group (ODIN Mining) signed a $1.7B agreement with Ecuador to develop the Los Cangrejos gold deposit in El Oro province. The agreement ensures government retention of a 50% share of the project’s value and is expected to generate $4.39B in revenue for the state through taxes, royalties and other fees. Ecuador will receive $54M in advance ‌royalties, ⁠with $34M paid upon signing. The remaining payments are tied to construction milestones, including the start of the processing plant and ​the beginning of ​mining operations.

The Bank of Japan held its short-term policy rate at 0.75% on Tuesday, but three of the nine member board (Takata, Tamura and Nakagawa) favored hiking rates to 1.0% due to concerns over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.

Goldman Sachs warns Iranian fallout is morphing into a manufacturing supply shock through a squeeze on petrochemicals. Goldman observes base chemical prices have soared 60% in recent weeks (fastest pace on record), and global chemical supply disruptions (20% of supply already offline) are causing “margin compression, production cutbacks and demand destruction” across global manufacturing supply chains.

Euro Stoxx 50 -0.15%, S&P futures -0.55% and Nasdaq futures -1.15%. European bonds trading lower, with yields up 5bps-8bps across the board. 10-year Treasury yield +3.2bps (4.372%). DXY dollar index +0.3%, spot gold -2.7% and spot silver -4.5%. Brent futures +3.5% ($111.99) and WTI futures +4.7% ($100.81).

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