Wealthion Macro Bites 6-8

Iran declared a ceasefire this morning after another declared ceasefire began fraying over the weekend. On Sunday, after Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at targets in northern Israel (Dovev Barracks), Israeli fighter jets struck “command centers” in two apartment buildings in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district. This exchange triggered Iran’s launch of several ballistic missiles toward three Israeli military air bases (all intercepted), which in turn led the Israel Defense Force to retaliate with airstrikes on military targets inside Iran. It came after President Trump posted a blunt demand on Monday, “Isreal and Iran must immediately stop shooting.”

Separately, Yemen’s Houthi armed forces announced a "complete and total ban" on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea on Monday, declaring that all Israeli-affiliated vessel movements would be considered military targets. Houthi spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree also announced missile strikes on sensitive targets in the Israeli port city of Jaffa.

Indonesia’s FINI nickel industry group reported production capacity utilization at domestic rotary kiln furnace smelters has dropped to 76% (from 84% in ’25) as Indonesia’s energy ministry has cut the nickel ore production to quota to 260Mt-270Mt in ’26 (vs. 320Mt in ’25). FINI Chairman Arif Perdana noted the smelters were gearing production to lower capacities to avoid costly total shutdowns, “Several lines of production in South and Central Sulawesi…reduced the production to less than 50% of capacity.”

In its longest streak of reported gold accumulation since 2015 (19 straight months), China’s PBOC added 320k ounces to its gold reserves in May (most since Dec. ’24). Since Nov. ’24, the PBOC has added 2.16M ounces to its gold reserves.

Week ahead: CPI Wed. @ 8:30 am (est. + 0.5% m/m & +4.2% y/y) and PPI Thurs. @ 8:30 am (est. +0.7% m/m & +6.4% y/y).

Euro Stoxx 50 little changed, S&P futures +0.7% and Nasdaq futures +1.3%. DXY dollar index -0.15%, spot gold little changed and spot silver +0.8%. After touching $98.08 early Monday on weekend hostilities, Brent futures are trading +1.3% ($94.33) on IRGC announcement; and after touching $95.47, WTI futures are trading +1.1% ($91.53). [8 am ET]

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