Wealthion Macro Bites 9/15/2025

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng concluded their second day of talks in Madrid. Bessent announced that the two sides have reached a “framework” for a deal to resolve the TikTok dispute. The final agreement is expected to be completed when President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping speak on Friday. The September 17 deadline for TikTok to be sold or banned in the U.S. had been extended multiple times by the Trump administration, and a deal is now in place, according to U.S. officials, to avoid a repetitive cycle of extensions.

China’s PBOC is seeking public feedback on a proposal to make it easier to import and export gold and gold products by streamlining the license system.  China intends to increase the number of customs authorities eligible to manage the “non-one-batch-one-license” program for gold products from 10 to 15 and extend the validity of the licenses from six months to nine.  The NOBOL licenses allow for multiple customs clearances as long as the total volume does not exceed the prescribed quantity.  

Goldman Sachs now believes risks to its mid-2026 $4,000 target for spot gold are to the upside, and has expanded its bullish stance from continued central bank purchases to include rising ETF purchases and stronger speculative positioning. 

Food for thought:  S&P 500, Case-Shiller home price index, gold, M2 Money supply, U.S. public debt are all at all-time high and CPI (+2.9%) is still 90bps above its target, yet the Fed is going to renew a rate cutting cycle this week.  Does the Fed believe the financial system cannot function without endless liquidity?

-Busy central bank week: Fed (est. 25bps cut) on Wed., BOE on Thurs., BOJ on Fri. (Brazil & Indonesia on Wed. and South Africa on Thurs.).