Macro Bites – Energy Supply Risks Rise as Hormuz Tanker Attacks Intensify

During the week of 9/28-10/5, maritime security firms confirmed at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the Strait of Hormuz, the highest weekly total since the ​Iran war began.  On Sunday, the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center published a note that attacks, attempted attacks and harassment activity including drone overflights, surveillance and hailing using VHF radio by Iran's Revolutionary Guards continue to persist ​in the Strait.  JMIC’s note stated, "These actions continue to demonstrate Iran’s ⁠intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure ​on transiting vessels."

The Atlantic reports the White House has asked U.S. Central Command to prepare options for strikes on Iran that could take place before Nov. 3 midterm elections. The size and targets of the potential strikes—and whether the administration will ultimately proceed—are still being debated.

The planning underscores just how much the president wants to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote.

As mainland Chinese markets reopened on Thursday after the week-long National Day "Golden Week" holiday, spot gold prices surged as much as $40/oz (to $4,151).  The reopening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange follows a volatile September for bullion (-6.3%) due to a strengthening U.S. dollar and multi-decade highs in Treasury yields.  Mainland investors are returning to a shifting global landscape marked by hawkish Federal Reserve minutes and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  However, physical demand remains underpinned by heavy institutional buying, with China's PBOC accelerating its monthly purchases in response to the recent price dip (650koz in August and 740koz in Sept.).

Minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed a majority of participants acknowledge the need to respond to persistent inflation, with most expecting that another rate hike would be necessary before year-end.  Several FOMC participants cited effects of the AI buildout in increasing core inflation pressures while the tariff effects waned.  The minutes stated, “With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.”

General Manager of Zimbabwe’s Minerals Marketing Corporation Nomusa Moyo announced on Wednesday that Zimbabwe lithium exports totaled $2.16B during the first nine months of 2026, nearly four times total 2025 sales.  The increase was due mainly to a 283% increase in the price of spodumene concentrate, a lithium-bearing mineral which is a key source of the battery metal.  Spodumene concentrate sales accounted for $1.8B of total lithium export income, followed by petalite at $155M.

Two unions ​at Chile's Centinela copper mine ‌rejected further contract talks with Antofagasta Minerals on Wednesday and launched a strike at 8 am local time (1100 GMT) ​after government-mediated negotiations failed to produce ​a deal.  The risk of a strike ⁠in Chile, the world's largest ​copper producer, had been supporting ​global copper prices as output of the metal has been constrained by operational disruptions, natural ​events and declining ore grades.  Union leaders said ‌they ⁠wanted all workers to receive the same benefits regardless of union affiliation.  Antofagasta said it was "willing to ​continue discussions ​with their ⁠representatives in order to reach an agreement that ​takes into account the interests ​of ⁠both parties."