Macro Bites – Chile Cuts Copper Production Forecasts as Mine Output Slumps

Indirect diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran brokered by Qatar concluded in Doha on Sunday with a draft peace framework currently circulating among officials. The marathon three-day session followed an intense 12-hour opening round in Tehran, aimed at staving off a major military escalation ahead of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.  Global crude prices are falling on the news.

China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported over the weekend that the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) reported significant increases in its identified resources of rhenium, gold and nickel, alongside the discovery of a major zircon deposit, as China seeks to secure supplies of minerals vital to industries from aerospace to EV batteries.  The progress could be significant for China, which remains heavily reliant on imports for some of these minerals.  China’s identified resources of rhenium more than doubled following a year-long nationwide reassessment of associated, low-grade and difficult-to-extract mineral deposits.

MNR’s reassessment covered 17 strategic minerals across more than 1,800 operating mines and medium- to large-scale mining areas in 27 provincial-level regions.  It also identified additional gold resources equivalent to 50 large deposits and nickel resources equivalent to 30, while newly identified resources of gallium, indium, tantalum and vanadium were each equivalent to more than 10 large deposits.

Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco slashed its ’26 copper production forecast to 4.94Mt from 5.27Mt and cut its ’27 forecast to 5.08Mt from 5.55Mt, implying just a 3% bounce from depressed ’26 levels (down 8.4% y/y).  During the 3-mos. ended Sept., Chile’s copper output sank to the lowest level in at least two decades.  The historic production slump stems from the combo of ageing mines, deteriorating ore quality and increasingly challenging geology in a country accounting for more than a fifth of global mined copper.  Mines run by Codelco and BHP Group account for 77% of the net ’26 decline.

On October 30, 2026, Fitch revised its outlook on France to negative from stable while affirming its credit rating at A+. This unscheduled review highlights rapid changes in the euro zone's second-largest economy. The negative outlook signals a high probability of a credit downgrade in the near future if its economic and political indicators continue to decline.

AI watch: Reuters reports that Asia’s manufacturing and stock markets are experiencing significant slowdowns as the AI boom begins to lose momentum. Private factory surveys released 11/2 revealed that while manufacturing activity expanded slightly in October, growth has sharply decelerated across chip-exporting powerhouse economies like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and China.  This cooling suggests global investors are increasingly questioning the long-term profitability and returns on huge AI investments.