Macro Bites – Project Vault Receives DRC Copper as US Builds Mineral Reserves

Ukraine struck a Russian refinery in the Ryazan region southeast of Moscow which accounts for nearly 5% of Russia's refinery throughput.  President Zelenskyy declared that Kyiv was abandoning a ceasefire covering energy sites announced by President Trump and criticized Trump's willingness to strike deals with Moscow.

Alberta is holding a nonbinding referendum on Monday asking residents if they want to remain part of Canada, marking the first time the oil-rich province has ever put the “separation” question directly to the public. Polls have shown roughly 70% of Albertans want to stay in Canada, with a very vocal 25% arguing that Alberta’s vast energy ⁠wealth is subsidizing poorer parts of the country and that bureaucracy in Ottawa has stifled the province’s economy. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said it was “time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on.”

At the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London yesterday, Swiss commodity giant Mercuria’s Global Head of Metals Kostas Bintas announced that Mercuria had delivered an initial 12kt of copper from the DRC to Project Vault, the U.S. government’s critical mineral reserve announced by President Trump this past February.  In September, Mercuria announced a $500M anchor investment in Project Vault which aims to stockpile critical minerals and alleviate supply crunches for a range of manufacturers that have for years been overly reliant on Chinese supplies.  Bintas stated simply about this groundbreaking copper delivery, “Copper from the DRC has gone into the vault this week.”

The WSJ reports U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is strongly opposing significant reductions in the 50% tariffs currently levied on Mexican steel and aluminum imports.   Lutnick’s opposition has stalled late-stage trade negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico.  The two nations had previously been nearing a trade package in which the U.S. would lower existing levies in exchange for a series of policy concessions from Mexico, clearing a pathway toward broader negotiations to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

In the latest manifestation of Prime Minister Modi’s crusade to reduce Indian gold imports as means to narrow India’s trade deficit (which has widened due to soaring energy import costs) and relieve pressure on the slumping rupee, several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices late Thursday suspending bulk ​subscriptions to gold exchange-traded funds, just ahead of the festive season when ‌investor demand typically rises.  The notices from the fund houses, including Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, UTI Mutual Fund and HDFC Mutual Fund, did not cite a reason for the move, bullion industry officials said the move followed a nudge from the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a “precautionary measure to avoid a surge in October bullion imports.”

Global diesel watch:  Zijin Mining’s Bisha copper-zinc mine in Eritrea has suspended ore processing since last week amid a diesel fuel shortage.  Several customers who buy Bisha’s zinc and copper concentrates (a form of semi-processed ores) have been informed that the halt could potentially last four weeks, and that there could be longer delays in the delivery schedule.