Wealthion Macro Bites 11/25/25

Fed Governor Christopher Waller (leading Trump candidate to replace Chair Powell) said the U.S. labor market is weak enough to warrant another 25bp rate cut at the Dec. FOMC meeting (12/9-12/10). “The labor market is soft. It’s continuing to weaken.” While fed funds futures now price 77% probability of Dec. rate cut (up from 43% last week), Governor Waller called a January rate cut less certain, pending the flood of pent-up economic data to be released in coming weeks.

An escalating war of words has erupted between China and Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments to Parliament a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be interpreted as an existential threat to Japan which would allow Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to respond militarily. China has announced it will block imports of Japanese seafood, cancel joint events and has warned Chinese citizens not to travel to Japan.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a comprehensive strategy to reduce U.K. dependence on foreign suppliers of critical minerals by 2035, with targets to source 10% of domestic demand from U.K. production (currently 6%) and an additional 20% from recycling. Backed by 50 million pounds of new funding, the strategy also seeks to ensure no more than 60% of U.K. supply of any individual critical mineral is sourced from a single country by ’35.

The U.S. Defense Department will reissue a tender offer for up to $500M of alloy-grade cobalt by end-Nov. ’25 with awards expected by Feb. ’26. The Defense Logistics Agency first sought offers in mid-Aug. for up to 7,500t of cobalt over the next five years but in mid-Oct. cancelled the tender after interested parties missed several deadlines.

Sept. Retail Sales (+0.2% vs. +0.4% est.) and Sept. PPI (+0.3% m/m vs. +0.3% est. & +2.7% y/y vs. +2.6% est.); @ 10 am Nov. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (est. 93.3). DXY dollar index flat, spot gold +0.2% and spot silver +0.5%.

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