Wealthion Macro Bites 12/16/2025

China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs jointly announced that China will require exports for nearly all steel products beginning 1/1/26.  The move is intended to reign in surging overseas shipments that have drawn global scrutiny and fueled trade disputes.  China exported 97.7Mt of steel in first 10-mos. of ’25 (+6.6% y/y) but average export price fell 8.7% to $695/t.

November payrolls are expected today to show a 50,000 increase with the unemployment rate up 10bps to 4.5% (highest since Oct. ’21). CPI (Thurs.) is also expected to rise 10bps to 3.1%. If the data is mixed to slightly softer, “soft-landing” stays intact, but if inflation or jobs print hotter, yields are likely to surge higher and risk assets will take a hit

EV watch: Ford is taking a massive $19.5B write-down on its struggling EV business, scrapping plans for new large EV’s, canceling models, and pivoting to focus heavily on hybrids, gas-powered vehicles, and extended-range options to become profitable by 2029.  Years of huge EV investments haven't paid off amid slower-than-expected consumer demand.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran said “above target” headline inflation does not reflect underlying supply/demand and price dynamics closer to the Fed’s 2% target.  Most notably, Miran points out the shelter component is backward looking and does not reflect the ongoing slowdown in rent increases.  “Shelter inflation is indicative of a supply demand/imbalance that occurred as much as 2-4 yrs. ago, not today…Given monetary policy lags, we need to make policy for 2027, not 2022.”

The U.S. has paused its $40B Tech Prosperity Deal with the U.K. (covering AI, quantum computing and civil nuclear energy) to protest Britain’s approach to non-tariff issues such as online safety rules, digital services taxes and food safety restrictions.

DXY dollar index -0.2%, spot gold -0.3% and spot silver -1.5%.