Wealthion Macro Bites 4-14

In the wake of failed U.S./Iran peace talks in Islamabad, President Trump announced the U.S. Navy will begin a blockade of all Iranian ports beginning 10 am ET on Monday morning. Iran responded it will target Persian Gulf ports in retaliation for any disruption of its shipping hubs. Iran’s state-run IRIB News called the U.S. blockade “an act of piracy” and renewed Iran’s pledge to exert exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz even flowing an end to hostilities.

Hormuz ripple watch: Bloomberg reports China will halt exports of sulfuric acid beginning May (’25 exports were 4.6Mt). The ban will cover the sulfuric acid by-product of Chinese copper and zinc smelting and is intended to conserve China’s sulfuric acid supplies during the peak crop-planting season. Because nearly half of global sulfur supply originates from the Middle East (as by-product of oil and gas refining), Hormuz closure has sent sulfur prices soaring, especially in China where the price has risen 76% (from CNY3,874/t on 2/27 to CNY6,800/t on 4/8). Industries most likely to be disrupted are phosphate fertilizer production and the dominant heap leech copper mines in Chile, Morocco and Indonesia. Because 70% of mined silver is a copper byproduct, silver supply will slow along with copper.

Separately, France Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu cited Hormuz in announcing France will double state support to $12B per year (through 2030) to support national migration from oil and gas to electricity. Measures include boosting EV’s (65% ’30 target) and modernizing home heating (no gas boilers in new buildings from ’27). Lecornu stated, “Today 60% of our energy consumption comes from these imported fossil fuels…As long as we depend on oil and gas, we will continue to pay the price of other people’s wars, which unfortunately will continue and will impoverish us.”

In the steepest quarterly jump since China reformed its rare earth pricing mechanism in 2023, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel and China Northern Rare Earth Group set Q2 concentrate prices at CNY38,804/t ($5,678/t), up 45% from Q1.

Under the Australia-U.S. Critical Minerals Framework signed by Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump in Oct. ’25, Export Finance Australia and the U.S. Export-Import Bank have already pledged over $5B in funding (far above original $3.5B target) to accelerate development of Australia’s rare earth and critical minerals deposits, including nickel, cobalt, gallium, magnesium, vanadium and graphite. Recent announcements include joint commitments of $600M for a rare earth refinery being developed by Tronox Holdings and $705M for the Kalgoorlie Nickel Project (Australia’s largest nickel-cobalt resource) being advanced by Ardea Resources.

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