Wealthion Macro Bites 5-8

Despite headlined ceasefire hopes and ongoing equity market indifference, conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have clearly deteriorated in the past 48 hours. On Thursday, Iranian drones and missiles attacked three U.S. Navy vessels and U.S. forces retaliated by striking launching sites in Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island and Bandar Khamir. President Trump dismissed the relevance of U.S. strikes, “It’s just a love tap. The cease-fire is going. It’s in effect.”

On Friday, Iranian naval commandos seized a Barbados-flagged tanker (Ocean Koi) in the Sea of Oman, and, in the first documented attack on a Chinese vessel in the conflict, the oil products and chemical tanker JV Innovation was hit by projectiles while its chief engineer said it was still unclear who fired on the ship.

While not issuing a “universal injunction,” the Manhattan-based U.S. Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 in favor of two companies (and Washington State) to invalidate the 10% blanket tariffs imposed by President Trump in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (which had never previously been invoked). Stay tuned…

In a public hearing on Friday, Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry proposed raising its tiered royalty rates for copper, gold and tin (which are based on benchmark prices) to boost state revenue amid higher metal prices. The Ministry proposed raising royalty rates for copper concentrate to 9%-13% (from 7%-10%), for copper cathode to 7%-10% (from 4%-7%), for gold to 14%-20% (from 7%-16%), and for tin to 5%-20% (from 3%-10%), as well as adjusting thresholds for nickel ore royalty rates.

Freeport Indonesia President Director Tony Wenas announced Thursday that the Grasberg copper mine is targeting a return to “full capacity” by early 2028. Grasberg was the world’s second biggest copper producer until severe mudflow interrupted operations in Sept. ’25. Grasberg is currently operating at 40% to 50% of capacity with plans to reach 65% of capacity by the end of 2026.

President Trump said on Thursday he would give the EU until July 4 to fully implement trade commitments (negotiated in Scotland last July) before raising tariffs on EU goods to "much higher levels" (including raising auto tariffs on EU vehicles to 25% from the previously agreed 15%). The Scotland agreement called for the EU to cut tariffs on U.S. industrial goods to zero and provide duty-free quotas on certain American farm ​and sea produce, but the legislation has bogged down in European Parliament.

The Financial Times reports officials and business executives from the U.S. and South Africa met in Johannesburg on Wednesday (in the highest-level bilateral engagement between Washington and Pretoria following ‘25 tensions) in preliminary talks on mining partnerships including potential US-backed investments in rare earth mining and logistics infrastructure projects.

China’s PBOC added to its gold reserves for the 18^th straight month in April, adding 260koz (largest monthly addition since Dec. ’24) and bringing its total holdings to 74.64Moz.

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