Wealthion Macro Bites 9/2/25

On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled (7-4) that President Trump’s broad use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on many countries was an overreach of his authority and therefore illegal.  The ruling found that Congress did not intend the IEEPA to grant the president unlimited power to impose tariffs, which are typically a congressional power.  Before the court order, Trump tariffs were set to affect roughly 69% of U.S. imports and if struck down, the duties would only affect 16% of imported goods.  The Appeals Court left Trump tariffs in effect until October 14 to allow the Trump administration sufficient time to appeal to the Supreme Court.

In the wake of President Trump’s punitive 50% tariff on many Indian imports (25% in protest of Indian purchase of Russian oil), Indian Prime Minister Modi held bilateral talks with Russian President Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin, with Modi characterizing India’s relationship with Russia as “special and privileged,” and Putin terming his relationship with “dear friend” Modi as “trusting.”

Spot gold touched a new all-time high ($3,508) in Asian trading Monday night driven by mounting prospects for Fed rate cuts and lingering concerns over Fed independence.  At $3,480, spot gold is now up 32.6% in ‘25, following a 27.2% rise in ‘24 for a 69% compound gain.  Spot silver also set a 13-year high ($40.85) in overnight trading and at $40.53 is now up 40.2% in ’25 following a 21.5% gain in ’24 for a 70.3% compound gain.  The 2025 year-to-date gain for GDX now stands at 86.3% and for GDXJ is 87.3%.

European bonds ticking lower by 4bps-6bps across the board.  10-year Treasury yield +5.8 bps (4.287%).  Euro Stoxx 50 -0.85%, S&P futures -0.7% and Nasdaq futures -0.9%.  DXY dollar index +0.65%, spot gold +0.2% and spot silver -0.35%.