Wealthion Macro Bites – Brent Surges to $99 on Risk Premium

Under China’s 15^th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development (jointly released by China’s NDRC and NEA on Wednesday) China targets renewable energy consumption to increase 53% over the next five years (from 1.18Bt of coal equivalent to 1.8Bt). Other 2030 targets include boosting renewable generation to 6T kWh (from 4T kWh in ’25), increasing wind and solar generation to 30% of total generation or 4T kWh (from 2.3T kWh in ’25), increasing non-electric utilization of renewables to 150Mt of coal equivalent (from 60Mt in ’25), and in emerging technologies increasing solar thermal capacity to 15GW (from 1.82GW in ’25) and marine energy to 400MW (from zero in ’25).  

The 5-year plan also includes several targets for making renewables more dependable. Wind and solar (backed up with energy storage) are targeted to provide 20% of electricity during summer and winter evening peak periods (up from 10% in ’25) currently, and China is targeting 300GW of peak generation capability from renewables by ‘30, a figure that matches a previously announced target for battery storage capacity. 

 DRC’s Mines Ministry announced it will begin enforcing its previously announced (2018) requirement for all mining companies to transfer 10% of their equity to Congolese nationals (incl. 5% for employees) beginning July 31. If companies such as Glencore, Ivanhoe, CMOC and Huayou Cobalt do not “prove compliance” by 7/31, they will face sanctions. No miner has yet complied with the law, citing unresolved questions over implementation. Stay tuned…  

 Reuters reports Panama is considering creating a state-owned mining firm to partner ‌with Canada's First Quantum on the re-opening of the shuttered flagship Cobre Panama copper mine. Under the proposal, First Quantum would retain a 60%-65% stake with 35%-40% owned by Panama. The 2023 shutdown of Cobre Panama wiped out 4.5% of Panama's GDP, more than 1% ​of global copper production and 40% of First Quantum's revenues. Following his 2024 election Panama President Jose Mulino pledged to “finalize” the mine shutdown, but 10% unemployment and record copper prices make reopening the mine more politically viable.   

 In a written statement to India’s Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament), Indian Union Minister of State for Atomic Energy and Space Dr. Jitendra Singh said the Nuclear Energy Mission (announced in the Union Budget 2025–26) will boost India’s nuclear power capacity from the current 8.78GW to 22GW by 2031-32 and to 100GW by 2047. As part of the mission, the government plans to develop and operationalize at least five indigenous Small Modular Reactors by 2033.  

 Additionally, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) plans to establish 32GW of capacity through indigenous Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) and Light Water Reactors (LWRs), taking the country’s total installed nuclear capacity to around 54 GW by 2047. The remaining 46GW is expected to come from projects developed by central and state public sector enterprises, state governments, private companies and joint ventures under different business models and reactor technologies.      

 Chilean Foreign Affairs Minister Francisco Perez said Chile is planning $100B in investments in its domestic copper industry to allow exports of refined copper (instead of concentrate) and diversify its customer base away from China (50% of current exports).