Wealthion Macro Bites – Five Macro Developments Investors Shouldn’t Ignore

The Iranian cease-fire is rapidly descending into outright conflict. The U.S. launched a third round of strikes against Iran on Saturday, after Iranian forces struck a Cyprus-flagged commercial vessel (M/V GFS Galaxy) in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran then targeted U.S. military sites in Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman early Sunday, after announcing the Strait was reclosed “until further notice.” On Sunday, President Trump claimed the Strait was open and “We’re beating them up.” Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf responded, “The era of one-sided deals is over. We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking." Yikes. 

India’s largest power producer, NTPC Ltd., is engaging consultants to identify potential assets in uranium-mining countries (incl. Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and South Africa) to secure supplies for 30 GW of nuclear power capacity. The search for uranium is part of India's ambition to grow atomic power capacity more than elevenfold by 2047, as the country aims to decarbonise an economy driven largely by coal and other fossil fuels. In December, the Indian parliament passed a law ending the decades-old state monopoly in atomic power generation and opening the industry up to private firms.

Struggling under $25B of debt and its lowest output in 28 years, Chilean (state-owned) copper behemoth Codelco Chair Bernando Fontaine declared the company will shift its focus from volume to profitability. Codelco’s results have been weak, and production has fallen below estimates for the past 7 years.  

China’s PBOC added 480,000 ounces (14.93t) of gold to its reserves in June, its 20^th consecutive month of increase and the largest single-month purchase since Oct. ’23 (bringing total official holdings to 2,346t).  

Liquidity watch: Wall Street sell-side (Goldman) and buy-side (Apollo) firms are beginning to suggest AI capital needs have pushed past a stock bubble into a gathering debt bubble, with ytd ’26 U.S. investment grade debt issuance already measuring a staggering $1.37T. In our chart of the week, rapidly declining FCF at AI companies suggest the current focus on token optimization is an early warning that AI implementation could be a bumpier, slower road than expected.