Wealthion Macro Bites-Protecting U.S. Steel

On Tuesday, the EU implemented a new framework to protect its steel industry from global overcapacity. The updated rules cap tariff-free imports at 18.3 million tonnes per year (47% quota reduction) and impose a 50% duty (up from 25%) on out-of-quota imports across 26 product categories.

Separately, the EU also ended its duty-free exemption for low-value packages and introduced a 3 euro ($3.42) customs duty on small parcels valued at 150 euros or less. The Commission stated 5.9B small packages were imported to the EU in ’25, with Chinese like e-commerce giants Temu and Shien controlling 90% of shipments. China’s ’25 trade surplus with the EU totaled $410B.

Inflation watch: Eurozone June CPI slowed to +2.8% (vs. +3.0% est. and +3.2% in May) and core CPI slowed to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% est. and +2.6% in May). At the ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra, Portugal), Fed Chair Warsh commented, “Expectations of future inflation have come down. Inflation risks have come down.”

Ferrari and BMW are joining Tesla and Chinese EV makers in rolling out new models featuring lightweight, cost-effective aluminum wiring, accelerating a shift away from copper projected to reduce global copper demand as much as 2% in ’26 (JPMorgan).

CATL’s massive Jianxiawo lithium mine received its “safety production” permit, the last in a series of production-related licenses and certificates required to resume production (halted since 8/10/25).

In its Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026 report, WGC estimates India’s decision to raise gold import duties from 6% to 15% will shave Indian gold consumption by 50-60 tonnes in ’26 (roughly 10%).

AI watch: Financial Times reports OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has begun discussions about giving the U.S. government a 5% stake in the ChatGPT-developer (precursor to govt. backstops?). South Korea’s Kospi Index declined 7.9% on Thursday, led by declines of 14.6% for SK Hynix (30% of index) and 9.1% for Samsung. In our chart of the week, AI mania has lifted semiconductor stocks 237% over past 14 months (surpassing the 234% surge during peak of the dot-com bubble). Stay tuned…

Employers added 57,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent the previous month.  Inflation concerns will focus attention on average hourly earnings (est. +0.3% m/m & +3.5% y/y). Euro Stoxx 50 +0.45%, S&P futures little changed and Nasdaq futures -0.2%. European bonds trading lower with yields rising 4bps-5bps across the board. DXY dollar index -0.3%, spot gold +1.0% and spot silver +1.5%. Brent futures -1.6% ($70.42) and WTI futures -1.9% ($67.26). U.S. markets closed Friday for July 4^th holiday.

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