Macro Bites – China Extends Gold Buying to 24 Months Despite October Price Drop

President Trump stated renewed U.S. military attacks on Iran are "highly unlikely" as long as indirect peace negotiations continue to show progress regarding Tehran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  Trump emphasized this stance repeatedly during a 20-minute phone interview with CNN, clarifying that a full resumption of hostilities depends on whether Iranian leadership signs a "very strong agreement.”

Separately, Secretary of State Rubio played down the chances of rapid progress in negotiations, saying Tehran’s demands to date are unacceptable and in some cases “outrageous and ridiculous.”  One official with knowledge of the talks played down Rubio’s comments, saying they were more to gain leverage than a sign the negotiations are breaking down.

For the 24^th consecutive month, China’s PBOC added to its gold reserves in Oct., purchasing 830koz (or 25.8t), bringing its total holdings to 78.3Moz (or 2,435t).  China has now increased its official gold holdings by 129t in the first 10 months of ’26, but total holdings still represent just 7.9% of total F/X reserves, far below the global central bank average of 27%.  The PBOC’s purchases occurred during a month spot gold fell 6.8% to close the month below $4,000/oz.

On 11/5, Brazil’s National Council for the Industrialization of Critical and Strategic Minerals officially approved the country’s first formal list of 27 critical and strategic minerals. The new policy is designed to boost domestic processing, secure geopolitical independence, and regulate federal funding and project approval. The 27 minerals are strictly divided into three tier-based priority classes governed by five distinct criteria: geopolitical risk, supply concentration, substitution difficulty, domestic value-chain positioning, and external dependency.  Projects involving the highest priority elements receive top preference for federal backing, public financing, and the highest level of regulatory scrutiny regarding ownership transfers and offtake contracts (cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, rare earths, silicon and uranium).

Indonesia is introducing targeted relaxations to its strict natural resource export rules to ease financial pressures on mining companies and boost local currency liquidity.  While President Subianto's administration continues to push toward a highly centralized "single-window" export system to prevent tax evasion, the government has softened two key pillars of its compliance framework.  First, natural resource exporters will soon be allowed to convert up to 100% of their foreign currency export proceeds into Indonesian rupiah (well above the previous 50% restriction ceiling).  Second, eligible mining exporters operating as Indonesian LLCs with a foreign shareholder owning at least 10% of the company can access highly flexible retention structures.

CEO of the DRC’s state-owned SNEL energy company Teddy Muba Lwamba told Bloomberg the DRC is seeking investors to develop $12B of electricity projects in the next five years to combat shortages hobbling economic growth.  The portfolio includes generation, transmission and distribution projects beyond the development of its Inga hydroelectric complex, which could eventually be the world’s biggest power-generating site of its kind.  After Paris meetings with U.S. and World Bank officials, Lwamba stated, “We’ve held extensive discussions with financial institutions, and the outlook is very positive.”

AI watch: Nvidia’s investigation into CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with an alleged Chinese spy raises a series of once-unthinkable questions, including whether the man at the center of the AI boom is at risk of losing his job.  Nvidia shares are trading down 5.7% in 9th Nov'26 premarket session after Huang disclosed the romantic relationship in a memo to employees, a decline that would mean a roughly $256B market capitalization loss.  The company’s board is assembling a committee of independent directors who will work with outside counsel to investigate the matter.