Macro Bites – Nvidia Slides 8% on CEO Turmoil as Iran Talks Stall

Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei said Wednesday that Washington has failed to meet Tehran's seven conditions, signaling no breakthrough in negotiations.  Speaking to Beirut-based channel Al Mayadeen,  Rezaei said messages received through Iraq, the UAE and other intermediaries failed to meet Tehran's demands, and if the U.S. were to launch additional strikes, “We may even target some American military bases in European countries.”  Rezaei further claimed President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu lack the political capacity to continue the war.

India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced on Tuesday new policies banning export of lithium-ion battery black mass, ​a recycled battery material containing metals such ‌as lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese effective immediately.  In changing its export status from “free” to “prohibited,” the Ministry order prohibits Indian recyclers ​from exporting lithium-ion battery black mass, encouraging ⁠domestic processing of critical battery materials and ​supporting India's electric-vehicle supply-chain ambitions.  The notification comes days after the Indian cabinet approved $300M in incentives to boost domestic processing of lithium ​and nickel.

One day after Codelco Chair Bernardo Fontaine said Codelco’s copper production would continue falling absent partnerships with private firms to develop new projects, Codelco announced an agreement ‌with India's Adani Group to develop the Kaburkaala copper exploration project in ​Chile's northern region of Antofagasta.  Adani ​will provide financing for the ⁠project, which could offer long-term ​supply for its smelting complex ​in Mundra, India.

Japan’s Sumitomo Metal Mining cut its annual refined copper output forecast by 46kt to approximately 400kt for fiscal ’27 (March).  The downward revision follows technical issues and operational slowdowns at its primary Toyo Smelter & Refinery facility (repairs projected to be completed this quarter).  Management refrained from forecasting ‘27 copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), citing ongoing difficult conditions for smelters.  The drop at Toyo tightens near-term refined copper availability in Japan, with broader Asian supply implications depending on recovery speeds and inventory drawdowns.

Rio Tinto is cutting dozens of jobs at its Nemaska Lithium processing plant in Bécancour, Que., as lithium demand weakens and the company seeks a path to profitability for the unit. The moves target the Nemaska Lithium unit, in which Rio Tinto holds a roughly 54% stake (the province holds the balance). The facility is being built as part of a lithium processing complex, though the pace of construction has been pared back this past spring. The layoffs come as the company grapples with market conditions that have reduced demand for lithium downstream operations.

AI watch:  Nvidia's board of directors met on Wednesday evening to weigh whether to oust co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang following revelations of two extramarital affairs—one involving Alice Huang (a woman U.S. intelligence officials believe is a Chinese spy) and another involving Kimberly Powell (who serves as VP of Healthcare at Nvidia and reports directly to J. Huang).  The board met to deliberate his future and assess whether Huang would be put on leave of absence and an interim CEO installed, though no official decision has yet been announced.

NVDA shares are 8% lower in Thursday premarket trading, a market cap loss of $335B.  For perspective this pre-market market cap loss is equivalent to the total market caps of Agnico Eagle, Barrick, Wheaton, Franco-Nevada, Kinross, Pan American, Alamos, and Equinox.

Given his pre-Oct. FOMC comments that the Fed had time on rate hikes, all eyes will be on NY Fed President John Williams’ [Permanent FOMC Voter and member of the Fed policy troika] 6:30 pm speech this evening in NYC.