Macro Bites – Chile’s Copper Output Slumps as Escondida Production Falls 21%

The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported that copper production at Escondida (world's largest copper mine) fell 21% y/y in Sept.  Escondida (operated by BHP) produced a total of 93,800t of copper in Sept.  Cochilco also noted that production at Chilean state-owned miner Codelco fell 14.1% to 99,300t, while output at the Collahuasi copper mine dropped 19.2% to 30,700t.  Codelco board Chair Bernardo Fontaine said Codelco’s copper production will continue falling unless the company partners with private firms to develop new projects.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) announced they will not approve $1.6B in combined financing previously earmarked for U.S. backed development of the massive Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty tungsten deposits in Kazakhstan.  The planned investments of $900M by EXIM and $700M by DFC faced intense domestic scrutiny due to doubts regarding its long-term commercial viability and the geopolitical risks of investing in a country positioned tightly between Russia and China.  Additionally, conflict of interest concerns focused on the fact that Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump hold investments in Dominari Securities, and investors tied to Dominari acquired a 20% stake in a corporate vehicle tightly woven into the Kazakh project.

Quote of the Day David Malpass in WSJ: “The Federal Reserve’s outdated economic models and board structure are pushing it toward interest-rate increases that would hurt affordability and small businesses without curbing inflation. This approach risks keeping bond yields and mortgage rates higher than necessary while waiting too long to cut rates. Instead, the Fed should consider broadening its models to include the value of the dollar as a key factor in price stability, which would help deliver low inflation, fast growth and dollar dominance.”

Inflation watch:  In the most absurd component of the Oct. CPI report, BLS estimates the cost of health insurance has now declined 35% over the past four years.  This discrepancy from the reality of sharply rising out-of-pocket costs for health insurance premiums stems from the BLS methodology of measuring insurers’ retained earnings.  Crazy stuff.

Barrick filed its S-1 for the American Barrick Gold Corporation (ABGC) IPO, including three technical reports (NGM, Fourmile and Pueblo Viejo).  In short, the S-1 document highlights ABGC as a pure-play gold producer with low geopolitical risk, producing 2Moz at ~1,800/oz AISC with a 20-year reserve life.

AI watch:  Goldman Sachs recently restricted access to advanced AI coding tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code and Microsoft’s GitHub, limiting their use strictly to engineers and quantitative "strats." The firm-wide policy update officially cuts off traders and investment bankers from using these specific coding assistants. The decision represents a major shift from earlier in the year, when Goldman's Chief Information Officer, Marco Argenti, actively praised non-technical employees for "vibe coding" their own scripts and tools. The reversal was driven by concerns over data and compliance risks, including information barriers, as AI tools could potentially breach strict firewalls meant to separate departmental information flow.