Key Takeaways

Oliver's silver target is $300 to $500, and he calls it aggressive. He describes it as a "rational" case, "silver ought to be $300 to $500," arrived at by silver catching up either to the base metals or to gold's own history, not a conservative base case.

He thinks silver has more room than gold. Oliver notes silver's price relative to gold was 6.5% in 1980 and 3.1% in 2011, versus roughly 1.6% now, leaving what he calls "plenty room" for silver to outperform.

He argues gold and silver miners are deeply undervalued. By his spread charts, mining indices trade far below their historical value relative to gold, and he calls miners "probably the most profitable sector in the US stock market."

The signal he watches is a miner-versus-gold breakout. Oliver says a breakout from a 13-year base would be "a long-term table-pounding signal that the monetary metals complex is about to go ape," historically occurring only alongside rising prices.

These are one analyst's aggressive, technical views. Silver is highly volatile, the targets are speculative, and this is Oliver's attributed forecast, not advice or a Wealthion recommendation.

Key Moments

00:21 - Silver vs. gold: why silver could have further to run The relative-performance gap Oliver says is off the charts historically.

01:22 - Why gold and silver miners are historically undervalued The spread charts behind his miner thesis.

03:26 - How high could mining stocks go? Getting back toward the historical valuation range.

05:31 - The breakout signal for gold and silver miners The "textbook base" he says is nearing a breakout.

06:47 - How a debt crisis could fuel precious metals The bond-market catalyst he expects.

08:35 - Oliver's $300 to $500 silver target How he arrives at the number, and gold's two eight-fold bull markets.

10:08 - Why silver could outperform gold His preference for silver, and silver miners.

How High Can Silver Go? Michael Oliver's $300 to $500 Case, and the Caveats

"How high can silver go" is a question that invites big numbers, and technical analyst Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, gave Wealthion one of the biggest in September 2026: a target of $300 to $500 an ounce. Before going further, it is worth being clear that this is an aggressive, technically driven forecast from one analyst, not a consensus base case; silver is a famously volatile metal, and everything below is Oliver's attributed view, not investment advice or a Wealthion recommendation.

Could silver reach $500?

Oliver's answer is yes, and he frames it as reasoned rather than wild: "I have a rational one that says silver ought to be $300 to $500." He describes two ways to arrive there. One is silver catching up to the base metals like copper, lead and zinc. The other is silver catching up to gold's own history: he notes gold has staged two roughly eight-fold bull markets (from about $100 in the mid-1970s to $850 by 1980, and from roughly $260 to $1,920 by 2011), while silver has only about quadrupled from its 2015 low, which to him implies far more room to run. It is a large, speculative target, and Oliver himself notes he otherwise does not hold fixed price targets.

Why does Oliver think silver has more room than gold?

Because, on his measure, silver is historically cheap relative to gold. Oliver tracks silver's price as a percentage of gold's, and notes it was about 6.5% at the 1980 peak and 3.1% at the 2011 peak, versus roughly 1.6% today. If that relationship simply returned toward prior highs, he argues, there is "plenty room to gush to double silver, five-fold silver almost, just to get back to where it was in 1980 versus gold." He says silver has already broken out above a decade-long range relative to gold, even if it remains at low absolute levels. A more measured, structurally bullish view of the complex appears in Jeff Currie's gold and silver supercycle.

Are gold and silver miners undervalued?

This is where Oliver is most emphatic. Using spread charts of mining indices divided by the gold price, he says the XAU index historically averaged about 25% of gold's value (ranging 18% to 35%) but collapsed to 4% in 2015 and sits near 8.5% today, far below its historical norm. He makes a similar point about the GDX index, which he puts near 2.07% of gold, describing a 13-year base. Getting back even to the low end of the old range, he argues, would be more than a doubling. His blunt summary: miners are "probably the most profitable sector in the US stock market," and few are paying attention. For a timing-and-patience counterweight on the mining stocks, see Rick Rule on why falling gold stocks can be an opportunity.

What is the breakout signal he is watching?

A breakout in the miner-versus-gold spread. Oliver says the pattern looks like "the biggest textbook base I've ever seen," with three tops forming a rectangle, and that a monthly close above it would be "a long-term table-pounding signal that the monetary metals complex is about to go ape." Crucially, he argues this spread breakout has historically only happened alongside a rising market, never in a calm or falling one, so when the miners start clearly outperforming gold, it "always converts into net price gain" for both the metals and the miners. He says the market is pushing toward that level now.

What could accelerate it, and when?

Oliver ties the fundamental catalyst to government debt. He expects a "collapsing US government bond market" and a broader debt crisis to move to the center of the conversation, fueling demand for what he calls the monetary metals. On timing, he is cautious about precision but suspects that once the breakout occurs, it could move fast, potentially within "a couple quarters," and that this cycle could be different in kind, with gold, in his framing, no longer rising and falling but beginning to "become money." He personally favors silver miners over gold miners, while expecting both to do well. As always on Wealthion, this is Oliver's attributed, and unusually aggressive, technical view, not advice; a more cautious near-term take appears in Chris Vermeulen's warning of a shakeout before the next big rally, and Mike McGlone has argued gold is flashing a warning.

What Investors Should Watch

• The silver-to-gold ratio: Oliver's core gauge, near 1.6% versus prior peaks of 3.1% and 6.5%.
• The miner-versus-gold spread: the 13-year base he says is nearing a breakout.
• Mining-index valuations: XAU near 8.5% of gold versus a historical average around 25%.
• The US bond market: the debt catalyst he expects to fuel the move.
• Volatility: the two-sided risk in a metal capable of the swings Oliver describes.

FAQ

How high can silver go? Technical analyst Michael Oliver puts a "rational" target at $300 to $500 an ounce, arrived at by silver catching up to the base metals or to gold's history of two roughly eight-fold bull markets. He stresses it is an aggressive, technically driven forecast; silver is highly volatile, and this is his attributed view, not advice.

Could silver reach $500 an ounce? In Oliver's view, yes, over time. He argues silver is historically cheap relative to gold, at about 1.6% of gold's price versus 3.1% in 2011 and 6.5% in 1980, leaving substantial room if that relationship normalizes.

Are gold and silver miners undervalued? Oliver argues strongly that they are, citing spread charts showing mining indices far below their historical value relative to gold, and calling miners the most profitable sector in the US stock market. This is his attributed analysis.

What signal is Oliver watching? A breakout in the miner-versus-gold spread from a 13-year base, which he says has historically coincided only with rising prices and would signal the metals complex is about to move sharply higher.

Which expert and interview does this article reference? This article draws on Wealthion's interview with technical analyst Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis: "Silver to $500? The Precious Metals Trade That Could Explode Next."

Full Transcript

Speakers: Maggie Lake (Wealthion host) and Michael Oliver (founder, Momentum Structural Analysis). ASR errors corrected (index and term names) and filler removed; meaning preserved. A mid-interview Wealthion membership message has been noted rather than reproduced.

Michael Oliver (cold open): I have a rational one that says silver ought to be $300 to $500. The miners are probably the most profitable sector in the US stock market. That is a long-term, table-pounding signal that the monetary metals complex is about to go ape.

Maggie Lake: Let's talk about silver versus gold. Why do you think silver could have much further to run?

Michael Oliver: We measure the relative performance of silver versus gold by dividing an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold and expressing it as a percent. If you go back over the 50-year range, silver peaked at $50 twice, in 1980 and 2011. But its relative performance to gold in 1980 was 6.5%; in 2011, when it hit $50 again, it was 3.1% of the price of gold. Right now we're around 1.6% of the price of gold. Price took out its old highs, so why not the relative performance? What if that spread also goes up and takes out the highs of the last 50 years? Maybe silver goes to 10% of the price of gold and blows out that 1980 high. Don't be shocked, because its relative value to gold is off the page historically. The same is true, even more so, with the gold and silver miners. They are so underpriced relative to what they pull out of the ground that it's almost laughable. Look at the miners relative to gold on a spread chart back to the 1980s using the XAU index: XAU divided into an ounce of gold used to average about 25%, up to 35% at one point, down to 18% at another, but it lived in that range averaging 25%. It went to 4% in 2015. It has lived in a 13-year range capped around 8.5%, still well below the reality of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The same is true with the GDX index versus gold, which also has about 20% silver miners in it; it's trading around 2.07% divided into gold. On the chart there was a collapse from 2008 through 2015 to unbelievably low levels, and it has lived there for about 13 years. You had three run-ups to the 2.2% area; in February we got there again, then a sharp drop as the metals dropped, and now we're back around 2.07%. To a technician, that looks like three highs in a perfect rectangle, and you'd want to buy the breakout.

Maggie Lake: You mentioned 25% before. Is there a forecast in your mind where that 2% rises back toward those historical levels?

Michael Oliver: With XAU, which has the longer history, it lived at an average of 25% of gold's value, and right now we're above 8%. So just to get back to the middle of that range would be enormous. Even the conservative floor of that multi-decade range was around 18%, a repeated technical floor; when it broke, it collapsed to 4%. Let's assume we just get back to 18%. There's nothing between here and there but thin air on the chart, and that alone is more than a double. And when that spread advances, meaning the miners outperform gold, and frankly they've been outperforming gold for a couple of years, which people don't realize, it always converts into net price gains for both the metals and the miners. It's never in a calm or down market; it's always an up market. The miners beat gold, but during a net upside trend, and it drags the metals up with it. When that spread breaks out and surges, wouldn't shock me if we close a month above it, I expect the tone and nature of the market's advance to change dramatically, because that spread is going to explode. If you saw it as a price chart, you'd say it's the biggest textbook base you've ever seen. And remember, the miners are probably the most profitable sector in the US stock market, while everyone's looking at semiconductor earnings. [Membership message noted.] When you break out of that, it is a long-term, table-pounding signal that the monetary metals complex is about to go ape. And I'll bet that when it occurs, you start to hear debt stories on the sidelines, more focus on the collapsing US government bond market.

Maggie Lake: If we're on the verge of this, what kind of time frame are you looking at? Once it starts, does it accelerate?

Michael Oliver: I'll bet, based on a lot of experience, that the structures pending their breakouts are so massive that once you go through them and return to the true reality of miner valuations relative to gold, you'll do it quickly. In a couple of quarters you could see not just the spread explode but the net price of the whole complex go up dramatically. It may continue for a couple of years, but when this event and the others we mentioned, especially a government debt crisis, occur, we enter a new reality. This time, gold doesn't go up and come back down; it becomes money.

Maggie Lake: If we pull the focus closer, what are some of the key targets you'll watch to say this is transpiring as expected?

Michael Oliver: I frankly don't hold fixed targets, but I have a rational one that says silver ought to be $300 to $500. You could get there a couple of ways: silver catches up to the base metals, copper, lead, zinc, which are hardly in short supply, or it catches up to gold. Look at gold's history since it was legalized to own again: from a 1976 low it made an eight-fold move to $850 by 1980; from about $260 in 2001 to 2002 it made another eight-fold move to $1,920 by 2011. Two eight-fold bull markets. We're only about four-fold from the 2015 low, so we're only half as much gain, on a relative basis, as gold has done twice before, under far less onerous conditions for the world.

Maggie Lake: So does silver outperform gold?

Michael Oliver: Yes. As I said with the miners-versus-gold spread, silver has already emerged above a 10-year range relative to gold, still at very low levels, 6.5% in 1980, 3.1% in 2011, and around 1.6% now, well below those highs. So there's plenty of room to double silver, nearly five-fold silver, just to get back to where it was in 1980 versus gold, and its technicals argue it's already in that process. But the real key right now is the gold and silver miners, and I do personally favor the silver miners over the gold miners, though both should do well. Most investors don't think that's possible because they have a negative view of the miners, that they're dogs, but when you actually measure them, they've been doing a lot better than gold over the last several years, and nobody acknowledges it.

Maggie Lake: Do you look at the gold-silver ratio?

Michael Oliver: We do it the other way, dividing silver into gold as a percent, but it's the same chart upside down. When we see a technical structure like a ceiling that's been bumped, we watch it. Silver had a similar, less long-term ceiling that it emerged above in the recent surge, and even in the pullback since the January high, that spread has held above key levels; it broke out, pulled back, held, and is starting to turn up again. Those spread relationships are very telling right now, and when we get that breakout, I've told our subscribers you can throw all your other charts away, because that's when the complex really moves.