Jim Bianco: The Rate Shock Investors Aren’t Ready For – “We’re in a 3% Inflation World”

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research argues that the biggest risk in 2026 isn't a recession, it's a booming economy that keeps inflation stuck at 3% and forces interest rates much higher than anyone expects. In this interview with Maggie Lake, Jim explains why the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) is diverging from CPI for the first time in 40 years, why the S&P may only return 0-5% this year, and why most portfolios are built for cheap money that isn't coming back. He lays out his "4-5-6 market" framework: cash at 4%, bonds at 5%, stocks at ~6%, and explains why gold's rally is really about an Asian crisis, not U.S. decline. Jim also shares why Bitcoin's next bull run depends on "replacement, not permission."

Note: Recorded Monday, March 2nd.

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