Wealthion Macro Bites 4-1

On Tuesday, President Trump said U.S. military attacks on Iran might end in 2-to-3 weeks and Tehran did not need to make a deal as prerequisite for ending the conflict, “We’ll be leaving very soon.” Additionally, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran had the “necessary will” to end the ongoing war with the U.S. and Israel if it could secure guarantees against recurrence of conflict. While the S&P 500 soared 2.9% on this news, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon raised eyebrows in stating, “It’s much more important that this [war] be successfully completed than what the market does.”

Nonetheless, overnight and into Wednesday the U.S. and Israel continued bombardment of Iranian targets while Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE all reported Iranian attacks and QatarEnergy said a fully loaded fuel tanker was hit in Qatari waters. The UAE announced it is preparing to help the U.S. and allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force and suggested the U.S. should occupy strategic islands.

In an interview with Britain’s Telegraph, President Trump stated he was strongly considering pulling the U.S. out of NATO after allies failed to back U.S. military action in Iran. Trump described the alliance as a “paper tiger” and said removing the U.S. from the defense pact is “beyond reconsideration.”

At summit talks in Seoul on Wednesday, South Korean President ​Lee Jae Myung and Indonesian President Prabowo ⁠Subianto agreed to ​expand cooperation on critical minerals, technology, ​and clean ​energy. The agreements also include support for projects in ​renewable ​energy ⁠and data centers. Separately, during French President Emmanuel Macron’s three-day visit to Japan for talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, officials signed a roadmap to secure raw material supplies for a rare-earths refining project in southern France (Caremag).

The International Renewable Energy Agency reported 2025 global renewable power capacity grew 692GW (+15.5%) to 5,149GW, comprising 49.4% of global electricity capacity (up from 46.3% in ’24). Solar capacity grew 511GW (to total installed capacity of 2,392GW), wind energy installations grew 159GW (to 1,291GW), while fossil fuel power capacity grew just 116GW.

Bloomberg reports that concerns over the Iranian war and AI disruption drove Q1 trading volumes in credit default swaps (CDS) to a record $4.5 trillion. While the cost of default protection remains below previous highs, trading volumes were 36% higher than the prior quarterly record when President Trump unleashed April ’25 tariffs.

U.S. employment report on Friday (est. payrolls +65k and 4.4% unemployment rate) even though U.S. markets closed for Good Friday.

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