Wealthion Macro Bites 4-7

With hours to go before President Trump’s Tuesday 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire, Iran stepped up its attacks across the Persian Gulf while stating any future settlement must include compensatory damages and leave Iran in full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is demanding full freedom of navigation through the Strait or the U.S. will begin destroying Iranian power plants and bridges. While the U.N. has warned such targeting of civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, Trump said he’s “not at all” concerned about that outcome and threatened, “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.”

We have long maintained spot gold corrections gain steam in Western “paper” markets but are ultimately staunched by demand from the world’s leading physical markets (India and China). Along these lines, it is interesting to note that gold traded at a premium in India during the week ended 4/3 for the first time in over two months. Indian gold dealers quoted discounts of up to $8 an ounce and premiums of $2 an ounce over official domestic prices (incl. 6% import and 3% sales levies) compared with discounts of up to $61 in the week ended 3/27.

China’s PBOC took advantage of spot gold’s 12% March decline (worst monthly performance since ‘08) to purchase 160k troy ounces (4.97t), the 17^th straight month of purchases and the largest since Jan. ’25. Separately, WGC reports global central banks purchased a net 19t of gold during February, a rebound from January’s net 6t of purchases. However, the 25t aggregate total for Jan./Feb. ’26 remains 50% below the ’25 monthly average of 26t. Leading Feb. buyers were Poland (20t), Uzbekistan (8t), Malaysia (2t) and China (1t) and leading sellers were Turkey (-8t) and Russia (-6t).

Stagflation watch: The March ISM Services Index declined to 54.0 (from 56.1 in Feb. and 54.9 est.) and the Employment Index collapsed to 45.2 (from 51.8 in Feb. and 51.0 est.) while the Prices Paid Index soared to 70.7 (from 63.0 in Feb. and 67.0 est.). IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned “all roads” from the Iranian war “now lead to higher prices and slowing growth.”

Euro Stoxx 50 little changed, S&P futures -0.45%and Nasdaq futures -0.60%. European bonds are trading lower with yields up 4bps-5bps across the board. 10-year Treasury yield +1.2bps (4.343%). DXY dollar index little changed, spot gold +0.2% and spot silver -1.0%. Brent futures +0.8% ($110.75) and WTI futures +1.9% ($114.59).

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