Wealthion Macro Bites – Brent Crude Tops $108 as Iran Talks Stall

The U.S. and Iran remain far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it would not soften its demands in a proposal President Donald Trump recently rejected.  Stocks fell alongside Treasuries as fading hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the Iran war sent oil prices higher and reignited worries that inflation is heating up.  Brent touched $108.66 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.232% (+7bps) in early Monday trading (highest since June ’07). 

Qatar extended force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe by an additional month.  Separately, President Trump said on Sunday he is “very seriously” considering a 90-day U.S. diesel export ban (U.S. average now a record $6.52/gal).

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced Saturday that the U.S. will announce Monday sharply lower vehicle fuel economy standards through 2031, reversing a push by the Biden administration to force automakers to build more electric vehicles.  President Trump ​said he had approved new fuel economy standards for cars and trucks, which he ​said will lower the price of new vehicles.  Duffy telegraphed, "A major victory for America's auto ⁠workers is coming Monday."

The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs on $30B of “non-sensitive” goods and launch a dialogue on AI following last week’s Trump-Xi summit in Washington.  The tariff reductions would apply to U.S. exports such as agricultural goods, wood and cosmetics, as well as U.S. imports including small appliances, toys and decorations.

Northern Star Resources officially rejected an unsolicited $27.1B takeover proposal from South Africa’s Gold Fields.  The bid, which would have created the world's second-largest gold producer behind Newmont, was unanimously rejected by Northern Star's board, who labeled it "highly opportunistic" and argued that it "materially undervalues" the company.  Following the announcement, Northern Star shares jumped as much as 11% in intraday trading before closing 6.2% higher at A$23.47.

Barrick Mining reached a deal with unions at its Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine in western Mali, averting strikes set to begin Monday.

Peru's Minister of Energy and Mines Guillermo Shinno Huamani told Reuters Peru expects to ​boost annual copper production by about 1 million metric tons within 5 to 6 years through new mining projects.  As the world's third-largest copper producer, Peru expects ’26 copper output to remain between 2.5Mt-2.7Mt, roughly unchanged from ’23 due to declining ore grades ​and recurring social conflicts.  The newly elected conservative government of President Fujimori is seeking to reverse ​that stagnation by cutting red tape.

Hong Kong-listed MMG has sanctioned a $900M expansion of its Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana's Kalahari Copper Belt (incl. pre-‘26 expenditure).  The project lifts capacity to about 130kt of copper concentrate per year (and 4Moz of silver) via a new 4.5 Mtpa processing plant and three underground mines at Zone 5 North, Mango and Zeta North-East.   Total milling capacity exceeds 8.0 Mtpa.  Life-of-mine average C1 cash costs are forecast below $1.60/lb (down from $2.05/lb in mid-’25).