Wealthion Macro Bites – Zinc’s Surprise Deficit: How a Forecast Glut Became a 4-Year Price High

In retaliation for Iranian attempts to launch sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. struck an array of IRGC military targets in coastal Iran.  In response, Iran launched a series of drone and missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan and Bahrain (all intercepted).  Treasury Secretary Bessent raised eyebrows at the G-20 Summit in Asheville, N.C. in stating, “In two years, the Strait of Hormuz will be a worthless piece of water.  The oil will be going through pipelines across the land.”

After a two-day summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) signed a joint statement condemning the U.S./Israeli war on Iran and Western sanctions on various SCO members.  The so called “Bishkek Declaration” was signed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (among other leaders of SCO member nations). 

China’s National Energy Administration reported that during July solar farms (1,288GW) overtook coal plants (1.285GW) as China’s top source of installed power capacity for the first time ever.  However, due to the intermittent nature of renewable availability, wind and solar still comprised only 24.6% of China’s power generation in H1 ’26 versus 49.7% for coal (first time coal’s share dropped below 50%).

Battery supply chain consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reports China’s CATL has returned its Jianxiawo lepidolite mine (China's largest lithium mine) to care and maintenance after a brief and “informal” restart in July.  Any return to production is now gated by an environmental review since the mine’s EIA was revoked, and completing the review could stretch into Q4 ’26 or early ’27.  Benchmark halved its ‘26 Jianxiawo output forecast from 62.5kt LCE to 32kt while leaving its ‘27 forecast (99.0kt) unchanged.

Chile’s National Statistics Institute (INE) reported Monday that severe winter storms in normally arid northern mining regions reduced Chile’s July copper production 9.4% y/y (from 445.3kt to 403.4kt), the lowest July output since 2011.  The storms (between 7/15 and 7/20) put Coquimbo and Atacama under a catastrophe declaration; Lundin’s Caserones lost power when a transmission tower came down; and Antofagasta cut its production target because of weather interruptions.

Zambian state-controlled ZCCM Investment Holding’s CEO Kakenenwa Muyangwa announced Zambia will be adopting Ghana’s model for “regularizing” artisanal gold exports which he expects will unlock more than $1.8B from the country’s small-scale gold industry.  Muyangwa cited the vast mismatch between imports reported by buyer countries and declared shipments leaving Zambia.  The World Integrated Trade Solution reports the U.A.E. imported $1.8B of Zambian gold in ‘23 (and Hong Kong $108M), yet official Bank of Zambia statistics reflected less than $128M of gold exports that year.

During 2025, Ghanaian artisanal and small-scale gold output surpassed large producers for the first time, generating $10.8B in F/X.  The surge followed the creation of the state-owned Ghana Gold Board, which channels purchases from small-scale miners through the formal market.  The change also underpinned a cedi rally last year which made it the world’s second best-performing currency.  Muyangwa noted, “This is what we hope to achieve in Zambia.  We are very excited about this golden opportunity.”