Key Takeaways

Wellum calls this a debt bubble, plainly. "We're in a debt bubble," he says, warning of coming "overspending" and "overinvestment" that will bring "write-offs" and "damage," and urging investors to focus on "preservation of capital" and "preservation of purchasing power."

Interest costs could soon rival Social Security. By his math, roughly $42 trillion in US debt at even a modest 3.75% rate is near $1.6 trillion a year, about 26% of projected federal revenue, a share he says could push interest expense past Social Security's roughly 22% of the budget.

He is skeptical of "buy the dip" here. With AI-driven valuations concentrated in a small number of companies, he argues "you got to know what you're buying" as rate and inflation pressure squeezes profit margins.

He stays short-duration on bonds, but is watching for a turn. He is not chasing long bonds after the worst decade in memory for the trade, but says a slowing economy could eventually make them "a great trade again."

Gold is a "monetary substitute," and metals connect to both debt and demographics. He ties copper, silver and uranium to structural demand from AI and electrification, and gold to his purchasing-power concerns, layered on a demographic backdrop he calls a "vicious circle."

Why Is the National Debt a Problem? Jonathan Wellum on a $350 Trillion Debt Bubble

Headlines about the national debt often stop at a large, abstract number. Jonathan Wellum, CEO and chief investment officer of RockLinc, told Wealthion in September 2026 why the figure, now roughly $350 trillion globally, actually matters for a portfolio: rising rates make it harder to service, AI-driven markets are stretched on top of it, and the combination is what he calls a genuine bubble. These are his attributed views, framed for context, not personalized advice.

Why is the national debt a problem?

Because the interest bill is becoming a bigger claim on the budget than most people realize. Wellum walks through the math: the US carries roughly $42 trillion in debt, and even a relatively modest 3.75% average rate on that implies close to $1.6 trillion a year in interest, which he estimates at about 26% of projected federal revenue, up from a historical 8% to 10%. For comparison, he notes Social Security is about 22% of the US budget, so interest costs could soon exceed the country's largest entitlement program. His summary is blunt: "we're in a debt bubble." He does not see the US alone; he flags similarly strained fiscal positions in Canada, France, the UK and Japan, calling it "a developed world problem in many ways."

Is "buy the dip" becoming dangerous?

Wellum's caution here is about concentration, not the market as a whole. He argues the popular index trade has worked for so long partly because a relatively small number of AI and data-center-linked companies now carry outsized influence over the major indexes, and that if rates and inflation stay elevated, "there will be pricing pressures on these businesses regardless of whether they actually are going to be able to grow as fast as people are anticipating." His conclusion is not to avoid stocks, but to be selective: favor companies with pricing power, moats and leadership positions in their industries, since a broad, indiscriminate dip-buy strategy assumes conditions that may not hold. He expects "overspending" and "overinvestment" in AI to eventually produce "write-offs" and "damage," compounding pressure on a system already carrying heavy debt.

Could bonds become a good trade again?

Not yet, in his view, but he is watching. Wellum notes long bonds have been "one of the worst trades in recorded history" over the past decade, and he keeps his own positioning on the short end, buying one- to two-year paper and using discounted low-coupon bonds for tax-efficient gains with clients in Canada, rather than betting on the direction of the yield curve. His logic for eventually adding duration is straightforward: a heavily indebted economy slows under high rates, which historically brings rates back down, at which point long bonds could again perform well. He is explicit that this is a "watch for the peak" strategy, not a call to buy today, and that he would rather make money on equities than on guessing the yield curve.

Why does Wellum like gold, silver and copper here?

Two threads come together for him. The first is technology-driven demand: digitization, AI, data centers, robotics and EVs are lifting electricity demand by an unusually large 3% to 3.5% off a large base after decades of flat usage, which requires copper, silver and other inputs regardless of near-term Fed moves, a structural case he sizes in three-to-five-year terms rather than by the week. The second is the debt problem itself: he calls gold "a monetary substitute" and expects continued "financial repression" and currency pressure as governments struggle to fund $350 trillion in debt without further debasement, a dynamic he thinks central-bank gold repatriation (citing the Netherlands and Germany bringing gold home) reflects a broader loss of trust between nations. He also raises demographics as an underappreciated factor: aging, shrinking populations in Japan, China and elsewhere strain the same fiscal systems from a different angle, calling the effect on future growth "a vicious circle."

Is Wellum actually investing in that abandoned silver mine?

He followed up on the Prairie Creek project in Canada's Northwest Territories that he mentioned in an earlier conversation, a large silver deposit developed decades ago by the Hunt brothers (who cornered the silver market before its early-1980s collapse) and then abandoned, with much of its original, barely used equipment still on site. The operating company is Honey Badger, led by CEO Chad Williams, who Wellum describes as "a great steward" of the asset; he notes well-known resource investors Eric Sprott and Rick Rule are also shareholders. Wellum discloses that he personally owns a small position and has added a modest amount for some higher-risk-tolerance clients, describing it plainly: "I own a few shares." He is careful to frame it as speculative and not without risk, citing the decades the project sat idle simply because prices did not justify restarting it, and stresses that assessing a project like this requires physically visiting the site and meeting the geologists and engineers rather than investing from a distance. This is disclosed as his own small position and professional research process, not a recommendation, and any individual security carries its own risk that this summary does not evaluate.

FAQ

Why is the national debt a problem? Jonathan Wellum argues it is less about the headline number and more about the interest bill: at current rates, he estimates roughly $1.6 trillion a year in US interest costs, about 26% of federal revenue, potentially exceeding Social Security's roughly 22% share of the budget. He calls the overall situation, layered with high global debt, a debt bubble.

Is "buy the dip" becoming dangerous? Wellum is cautious about buying indiscriminately, since a relatively small number of AI-linked companies carry outsized weight in major indexes. He favors selective ownership of companies with pricing power over a blanket dip-buying strategy.

Could bonds become a good trade again? Not immediately, in his view, though he expects an eventual turn. He keeps his own bond exposure short-duration and would look to add longer maturities once the economy slows enough to bring rates down meaningfully.

Why does Wellum like gold, silver and copper? He ties industrial metals to structural demand from AI, data centers and electrification, and gold to concerns about currency debasement tied to unsustainable global debt, calling gold a monetary substitute.

Is Wellum invested in the Prairie Creek silver project? Yes, he discloses a small personal position and a modest allocation for some higher-risk clients, describing it as speculative. This is disclosed for context, not a recommendation.

Full Transcript

Speakers: Maggie Lake (Wealthion host) and Jonathan Wellum (CEO and CIO, RockLinc). ASR errors corrected (names, terms) and filler removed; meaning preserved. A free-portfolio-review message and a membership message have been noted rather than reproduced, and a partisan policy endorsement has been softened to its economic substance.

Jonathan Wellum (cold open): We're in a debt bubble. So that's what I'm concerned about. There's going to be overspending and there's going to be overinvestment, and that means there's going to be some write-offs and there's going to be some damage. Investors need to think about preservation of capital. They need to think about preservation of purchasing power.

Maggie Lake: [Free-review message noted.] We had a series of inflation readings out this week that seem to show prices remaining stubbornly high. What does that mean for how you're managing portfolios?

Jonathan Wellum: I lean on long-term, disciplined principles, because none of us know the future, so we look at probabilities. I think the inflation trade continues to be a challenge, though I'm not calling for a massive increase; it depends on the Fed's response. This inflation has come from fiscal overspending, large deficits, money-supply additions, lingering COVID supply-chain disruption, deglobalization, and now the Iran situation putting upward pressure on oil, since refining capacity has been damaged and things are taking longer than the administration expected. If inflation stays a bit higher, price-earnings ratios should come down, which pressures valuations, and interest rates have to rise, making it harder for companies to pass on costs. So you want to be careful about overpaying, and favor businesses that can pass on costs, that have pricing power and moats. You also want to be careful about long-duration fixed income. Long bonds have been one of the worst trades in recorded history over the past decade, and that will eventually reverse, so we stay short but watch for a peak in rates that would let us extend duration for the right clients.

Maggie Lake: People are conditioned to buy every dip. Are you saying that's dangerous now?

Jonathan Wellum: The index trade has been a great trade, but that just means it's getting long in the tooth, with a relatively small number of companies carrying outsized valuations that dominate the indexes, the Magnificent Seven and the AI and data-center names. If rates keep rising and inflation runs hot, there will be pricing pressure on those businesses regardless of whether they can grow as fast as expected, and there's real uncertainty about pricing for tokens and AI compute, and what margins and returns on capital will actually look like. There's going to be overspending and overinvestment, and that means write-offs and damage, and if that happens while rates are rising and inflation runs hotter, it puts more pressure on the whole system, especially the massive debt already in it. We're in a debt bubble. Bottom line: know what you're buying, be careful about valuations, keep some powder dry, hold harder assets, keep reasonable diversification, and stay nimble.

Maggie Lake: The second narrative is that bonds are simply uninvestable. You're not taking them off the table completely, just waiting for the right entry point?

Jonathan Wellum: Exactly. People extrapolate from the recent past, which is how you end up chasing things to the top and overpaying, which retail and institutional investors both do. Right now the 10-year is near 5%, the 30-year higher, and even the short end is close to 4%, which will have a dramatic impact on all the debt out there, at a time when housing is weak and private credit is under pressure. At some point that becomes an anchor on the economy, it slows, and rates come down again, and that's when bonds could be a great trade. TLT has been eviscerated; an analyst on my team pointed out you'd have made no money holding it since 2004, 22 years. Eventually that reverses, but I'm not saying to do it now, just to watch for a peak in rates. [Membership message noted.] We use short bonds, sometimes low-coupon Canadian bonds bought at a discount for tax-efficient capital gains, mainly to dampen volatility and keep powder dry, rather than trying to guess the yield curve, which I'd rather leave to dedicated bond managers. Even for equity-focused, value-minded investors, bonds still have a role; declaring 60/40 "dead" doesn't mean never touching bonds again, it may be exactly when you should start paying attention to them again, especially if a recession hits.

Maggie Lake: Let's talk gold and commodities. Gold's been pressured by rising yields and the dollar, while energy costs are rising too.

Jonathan Wellum: We look at metals and minerals through digitization, AI, data centers, robotics and EVs, all lifting energy demand that had been flat for decades in countries like Canada and the US due to efficiency gains; now digitization alone is pushing that up 3% to 3.5% off a very large base, and the grid, much of it built in the 60s through 80s, needs rebuilding. Technology companies won't be able to grow without the copper, silver and other inputs behind them, so we're comfortable owning some of these commodities directly, given structural deficits, thinking three to five years out rather than reacting to daily volatility; the same goes for uranium given nuclear demand. On gold specifically, we're very concerned about roughly $350 trillion in global debt. With interest rates higher, how do you fund that without further currency debasement? These are close to inevitable numbers, and growing our way out, something people have promised for 40 years going back to the Reagan era, requires discipline and moral resolve that, let's say, are somewhat dormant right now, given that policymakers keep proposing new spending.

Jonathan Wellum: Take the US: roughly $5.5 trillion in revenue against $42 trillion in debt. Put even 3.75% on that, lower than current short-term rates, and you get close to $1.6 trillion in interest, which would be about 26% of revenue if the budget reaches $6 trillion next year, up from a historical 8% to 10%. Social Security is about 22% of the budget, so interest could soon exceed it. That's why I want to own a monetary substitute like gold; there will have to be some financial repression, continued pressure on currencies and inflation, and this isn't just a US problem. Canada has a debt issue too, though less severe, and France, the UK and Japan are in difficult positions, so it's a developed-world problem. Layer in demographics: Japan's ratio of deaths to births is about two to one, a demographic collapse that undermines long-term economic vitality; China is nearly as bad, Russia's ratio is concerning, the US is just over one to one, while countries like India are closer to two to one in the other direction. It becomes a vicious circle, since people have fewer children partly because they don't feel they can afford to.

Maggie Lake: That circles back to building resilient portfolios now, since change seems to be coming one way or another.

Jonathan Wellum: Look at the inevitables: the debt, the difficulty addressing it, rising rates alongside deglobalization raising costs as we dismantle a global structure that, while I think reshoring is necessary, brings real challenges. Manufacturing capacity in the US and Canada was hollowed out over recent decades, and reshoring aims to bring jobs back to the middle class, but it isn't easy. That's why I think you want to hold on to your purchasing power. When nations don't trust each other, as we're seeing with gold being repatriated back to places like the Netherlands and Germany, that's about wanting your own collateral. It's a sign of the times that Canada and the US are even in a trade dispute given how close the two countries have historically been; when politics intrudes like that around the world, alongside ongoing conflicts, it reflects a lot of mistrust, and some desire to de-dollarize, though I don't think the dollar disappears as a major currency. Put all these trends together, including the yen carry trade unwinding and reduced appetite for Treasuries, and investors need to think about preserving capital and purchasing power, largely through businesses that are scarce, essential and can reprice: infrastructure, commodities, gold, silver, copper, some agriculture, energy. Those are the areas we're trying to allocate toward, alongside other holdings, because we see them as durable, growing parts of the economy.

Maggie Lake: Last time we spoke you were doing a site visit to a silver mine. How was it?

Jonathan Wellum: Fascinating story. It's up in the Northwest Territories at a site called Prairie Creek, developed decades ago by the Hunt brothers, the Texas family known for cornering the silver market, who pushed silver to about $50 an ounce in the early 1980s. They built the mine and completed all the development drilling and sizing of the resource, brought in some of the best equipment in the world, shipped in over winter with no permanent road, and were ready to switch it on, then silver's price collapsed and they simply walked away and told everyone to leave. Fifty years later, some of that equipment has barely been used, one piece had just 1.6 hours on it, and the company now advancing it, Honey Badger, led by CEO Chad Williams, has hired a team to assess how quickly it could restart, since much of the equipment could largely be reused, aside from updated electronics and componentry. It sat idle so long simply because the economics didn't work at lower silver prices; now, with prices higher and the Northwest Territories economically motivated after its diamond industry declined, there's momentum to build the roughly $300 million access road the project needs, against equipment on site worth a similar amount at today's values. The deposit also carries meaningful zinc, tungsten and germanium, minerals not fully valued in earlier assessments. Chad has strong relationships with government and Indigenous communities, some of whom recall working there originally, and is being careful on the environmental side. I own a few shares personally, and we've added a modest position for some of our more risk-tolerant clients; well-known resource investors like Eric Sprott and Rick Rule are also involved, which says something in this space. It's speculative and not without risk, which is exactly why you have to go see a place like that yourself, walk the site with the geologists and engineers, and understand how much work and capital actually goes into producing something like silver before you appreciate it.

Maggie Lake: Thank you for sharing that, and it's a great illustration of why you need to know what you're doing in this space, given the risk the Hunt brothers' abandoned investment also underscores.

Jonathan Wellum: Stay focused on the fundamentals that don't change with every move in rates or inflation, make gradual portfolio adjustments, and keep a long-term view. There are real opportunities despite the challenges.

If you want a professional read on how short-term funding risk fits your own portfolio, you can request a free portfolio review from an advisor who understands real assets at https://www.wealthion.com/advisors/.

This article is educational and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. It does not recommend any security. Advisory services are provided by Greylock Peak Investments, LLC, a subsidiary of Wealthion. Wealthion is compensated for advisor introductions; see the Solicitor's Disclosure Document, ADV Part 2A and Form CRS. That arrangement does not influence editorial coverage.