Macro Bites – 45% of U.S. Data Center Plans at Risk

At the Bharat Renewable Energy Summit on Wednesday, India’s Power Secretary Pankaj Agarwal announced India will soon require state utilities to add ​energy storage capacity, a move aimed at helping ‌the country save surplus clean power for use during evening peak demand as it rapidly expands clean energy generation.  Currently, state ​utilities do not have battery storage to save ​the surplus energy they buy. With demand high ⁠this year, that has led to power shortages across ​the country during the evening and night.

Separately, India’s Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) Head Tusarkanta ⁠Parida said IREDA plans to partner with global financial institutions to raise cheaper, long-term green funding ​for domestic companies.  India is pursuing one of the world's largest renewable energy expansion programs, but renewable energy developers ​in India have long complained about borrowing costs of 11%-12%, ​compared with financing costs of 2%-3% in developed markets. Parida stated, "We are looking to tie ​up with global banks, institutional investors and multilaterals for long-term funding ​partnership to raise more green finance at competitive rates."

Freeport-McMoRan announced Wednesday it has officially approved a $4.5B expansion and modernization program for its wholly owned Bagdad copper and molybdenum mine in Arizona.  This massive project is designed to lift Bagdad's annual copper production by 225Mlbs to over 400Mlbs., positioning Bagdad to become the second-largest copper mine in the U.S.   The brownfield expansion will significantly increase overall mining and milling rates through updated infrastructure. Key upgrades include an enlarged Autonomous Haulage System (AHS / BAHS) truck fleet and a new overland conveyor system to optimize material transport.

Lundin Mining has further cut its ‘26 copper production guidance to a range of 285kt-310kt, down from previous guidance of 300kt-325kt, driven entirely by operational constraints at its Chilean Caserones mine.   Back-to-back blizzards in July and August damaged heavy power transmission infrastructure, resulting in a 30-day suspension of mining operations.  Subsequently, unprecedented snowmelt has triggered muddy conditions severely limiting the volume of ore successfully delivered to processing mills.

Inflation watch: The KFF 2026 Employer Health Benefits Survey reveals average annual premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance have reached $28,303 for family coverage.  Past years in the KFF survey totaled $6k in ‘99; $8k in ‘02; $11k in ‘05; $13k in ‘08; $15k in ‘11; $17k in ‘14; $19k in ‘17; $21k in ‘20; $24k in ’23; and $28k in ’26, up a total 367% since ’99, or 6% per year (vs. 2.6% annual CPI inflation).  Now here’s the rub.  In its CPI calculations, the BLS utilizes a bizarre formula of retained earnings by health insurance companies.  For the past six years, BLS CPI data has calculated the annual health insurance inflation rate as -6.08% (’26), +3.10% (’25), -5.59% (’24), -22.78% (’23), +13.97% (’22) and -4.34% (’21).  In certain categories, CPI methodology is downright laughable.

AI watch:  Goldman Sachs Utility Analyst Carly Davenport estimates that Democratic wins at the state level could lead to moratoria affecting 45% of planned U.S. data center capacity.  If her views prove correct, U.S. economic growth will face a sharp slowdown in the coming years.  CoreWeave bonds hit a new low while debt issued by companies such as Galaxy Digital and Stingray Compute also fell.