Macro Bites – Central Bank Gold Buying Jumps 42% as ETF Inflows Return

Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said Monday his government has been granted authority by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to pursue peace talks, as President Trump hinted at progress in negotiations. Pezeshkian said, “We are striving to resolve the issue through dialogue and, in this regard, the Supreme Leader has also granted certain powers to the government.” Separately, the WSJ reports the U.S. attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out in recent weeks.

In its Q3 ’26 Gold Demand Trends report, the World Gold Council estimates total global gold demand (including OTC) dipped 1% year over year to 1.369kt.  However, driven by record highs earlier in the year, ytd demand reached 3.881kt, matching the historic ‘25 record while setting an all-time value record of $566B.  The latest data highlights a highly fragmented market: institutional and official sectors accelerated their accumulation to shield against macroeconomic stress, while high prices sidelined retail buyers and jewelry consumers.

WGC reports central banks added a net 321t to reserves in Q3 ’26 (up 42% y/y and highest quarterly total since Q4 ’24) with portfolio diversification and risk management remaining primary demand drivers. Year-to-date purchases of 675t are 6% higher y/y. WGC notes physical gold ETFs returned to inflows in Q3 in a marked reversal from Q2, adding 211t in the quarter. This was only 6% below the strong inflows seen in Q3 ’25 and total holdings rose to a record 4.256kt. OTC demand reached 143t up from 101t y/y

South Korean market research firm SNE Research reports global EV battery installations reached 994.5GWh in the first nine months of ’26 (+19.7% y/y), with a monthly record of 145.1GWh installed in September. The seven Chinese battery manufacturers in the global top 10 captured a combined 73.0% market share, up from 69.5% during the same period last year. This sustained double-digit volume expansion continues despite a pronounced divergence in regional demand.

Officials in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) seized thousands of tons of copper and cobalt, prompting the justice minister to order an investigation into allegations of widespread illegal mining. The confiscations came after a commission of officials from the police, military and mines ministry visited copper-rich southeastern Lualaba and Haut-Katanga provinces. The government's multi-front campaign targets deep-seated corruption within the sector, illicit international networks, and rebel groups funding conflicts through stolen minerals.

Congo is the world’s largest source of cobalt and the second-biggest copper producer. It has struggled to prevent incursions by illegal miners (often protected by Congolese security forces) onto sprawling concessions held by international companies including Glencore and CMOC Group. The DRC government recently suspended and removed the head of its artisanal mining regulator amid mounting pressure and scrutiny over the enforcement of mining controls and detained 300 Chinese nationals and several local operators during operations targeting unauthorized mining on private industrial concessions in Kolwezi and surrounding areas.

AI watch: Anthropic reported Q3 revenue of $16.96B (up 11-fold y/y but just +47% q/q, a large slowdown from the +144% Q2 pace). Despite the higher revenues, the operating loss was $567M vs a Q2 profit of $974M. Its net loss was $23.3B, with its ytd deficit at $104B. Anthropic reported $895.3B in computing commitments plus another $175B in planned spending, half of which prior to 12/31/30.